Weekly Recap | GDX.US -1.67%, Fed hike weighs on miners

The Week

GDX.US closed the week down 1.67% at $95.48, compared with a 0.08% decline for the S&P 500 over the same period, leaving the fund about 1.59 percentage points behind the benchmark. The weekly range was roughly 5.8%. The week opened at $93.93 on Monday and traded between $91.19 and $96.68 before settling at $95.48 on Friday. Early in the week, the ETF mostly held within $92.85 to $95.08. Wednesday brought a heavy sell-off: volume hit 27.0 million shares that day and GDX closed at $92.80, near the week’s low. Thursday bounced 3.37% to $95.92, before Friday gave back a little ground to close at $95.48. Total weekly volume was 105.5 million shares, with an average of 21.1 million shares per day, about 3.6% above the recent median. The fund ended the week below its 20-day moving average of $98.64, while the 60-day average sat at $86.00.

Sector News

Two major themes ran through the gold mining sector this week: continued deal-making across miners, and a repricing of rate expectations after the Fed resumed hiking. On the corporate side, Franco-Nevada lifted its exposure to Bullabulling Gold across two transactions worth about A$230 million in total, while Gold Fields increased its stake in Founders Metals to around 19.9%. Agnico Eagle said it was not interested in joining Barrick’s North American IPO, and separately took a 14.9% strategic position in Scout Discoveries. Wheaton Precious Metals received a new buy rating, reiterated a target of 50% production growth by 2030, and helped fund Ontario’s Marathon copper-palladium project. On the macro side, the Fed resumed rate hikes this week; Goldman Sachs bet on another hike in October, and the dot plot median pointed to one more move this year. Two-year Treasury yields hit a multi-year high and the US dollar touched a seven-week high. Gold miners moved higher on Thursday as the dollar softened, but the week’s news and price action should be read side by side rather than as a simple cause-and-effect chain.

The Week Ahead

The focus for gold miners remains squarely on rates and the dollar. The macro calendar includes the Richmond Fed composite index on Tuesday, followed on Thursday by initial jobless claims, the current account balance, new home sales and EIA natural gas storage. With the Fed’s September hike already delivered, the debate over whether October brings another move is still open, and fresh commentary during the week will feed into that. There are no major GDX-specific filings this week, and no direct earnings entry on the upcoming calendar. Still, a few follow-ups are worth tracking: Minerals 260 has scheduled an investor webinar to discuss funding and progress at Bullabulling, and Radisson will take part in the Gentile mining investor forum in London. These may not move GDX directly, but they add colour to sector sentiment.

In Short

GDX.US left the week shaped by two competing forces. On one side, industry fundamentals remain active: several miners picked up buy ratings, and Franco-Nevada, Gold Fields and Agnico Eagle kept adding to project stakes, while majors continue to favour returning record cash over building new mines. On the other side, the macro backdrop turned tighter as the Fed resumed hiking, two-year Treasury yields reached a multi-year high, and the dollar strengthened, all of which tends to pressure the case for holding gold. Because GDX is a passive sector ETF, conventional P/E and P/B figures do not apply; the latest turnover rate of 6.25% is a single-day snapshot, not a weekly reading. Capital-flow data is also a one-day snapshot, so it cannot tell us the week’s direction. What matters now is whether gold miners can hold up if rate expectations keep drifting higher, and how Fed commentary and the dollar trade in the days ahead.

This article is generated by LongbridgeAI from market data, for information only and not investment advice.