I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.With U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion, 92% of voters are concerned about its impact on living costs, and 95% favor candidates with clear debt plans. However, significant legislative action is unlikely before the midterms. Expectations focus on small steps during the post-election 'lame-duck' session, where Republicans may raise the debt limit while incorporating budget watchdog provisions.
By Victor Reklaitis
Watchdog groups say midterm voters feel that 'something's wrong'
To what extent does all of Washington's red ink matter for voters?
The U.S. government's total debt topped $40 trillion last month, generating plenty of headlines, but does all that red ink actually matter for voters in this year's midterm elections?
Debt watchdog groups say there is real concern about the national debt, though it's combined with other worries.
"It's a significant issue. It often may be something that gets lumped under other concerns - about affordability, about a sense of pessimism about the future of the country and the economic position of the country," said Carolyn Bourdeaux, executive director at the Concord Coalition and Concord Action.
There is "really broad understanding that there's something wrong with being so deeply indebted," and an overall sense that "there's something wrong with an economy" that features elevated mortgage rates and high prices for essentials, said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The general public doesn't have "a perfect understanding of the link between deficits and the economy," but "at some level people do understand the connection," Goldwein added.
"Whenever I'm in a crowd and I tell them, 'We spend more on interest than on national defense,' that freaks them out," he said. "Because they care about our spending priorities. And so I think more often than not, the debt matters because of its consequences."
Another watchdog group, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, said a new survey that it commissioned shows that 92% of registered voters are concerned about the national debt's effect on their cost of living, with 57% saying this month that they're very concerned and 35% saying they're somewhat concerned.
The survey, which is due to get widely released in the coming days, told respondents that the rising national debt can increase inflation and interest rates before asking if they're worried about the effect on their everyday expenses.
The Peterson Foundation's survey also found 70% of voters think candidates aren't talking enough about the debt and its impact on the cost of living. In addition, 95% say they'd be more likely to support a candidate with a clear plan for the debt.
While such concerns are coming to the surface, Washington isn't expected to take big steps toward tackling the national debt before the Nov. 3 elections. There could, however, be small steps during the so-called lame-duck session that runs from after the midterms until early January, when a new Congress is sworn in.
There are expectations that during that period, the Republican-controlled House and GOP-run Senate will aim to work with the Trump White House to make a deal that raises the U.S. debt limit yet again - while also including provisions that encourage budget watchdogs. It could be a last chance for dealmaking as Democrats are forecast to grab the reins of the House in November's election, with winning Senate control viewed as a harder lift.
The U.S. government's ceiling for borrowing now stands at $41.1 trillion. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that Washington will bump into its debt limit between late winter and mid-summer, so Congress must act in the months ahead if it doesn't want to spook markets.
"I would like to see it addressed in the lame-duck session, with a fiscal-commission bill attached," said the Concord Coalition's Bourdeaux, referring to proposals for a bipartisan panel that would tackle the national debt. She said she'll be tracking a hearing on Monday run by the House Budget Committee that looks at the need for a fiscal commission.
"One of the big topics coming out of that meeting will be what do we do in the next few months to try to set the stage for building a plan to get the situation under control," Bourdeaux said.
From MarketWatch's archives (January 2023): The U.S. has run up against its debt limit, so Treasury is using "extraordinary measures": Here's what that means
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised skittish bond investors a month ago that the White House would roll out a new plan for tackling the national debt within days, but later said it'll be ready "in the coming weeks or months." Bourdeaux said she's not expecting much on that front, noting the Trump administration has failed to put out a traditional budget proposal with detailed projections.
Past rock bottom?
The gross national debt has doubled in a decade.
Until the mid-2000s, there was "sort of an unspoken fiscal rule that we should always be working toward a balanced budget," but that "really broke down" after the 2008 global financial crisis, said Goldwein from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "It was replaced little by little with this idea that debt either barely matters or in some cases doesn't matter at all."
For debt watchdogs, the U.S. hit rock bottom around 2020 and 2021, according Goldwein.
"We passed a huge COVID relief bill in the spring of 2020 - that I think was highly imperfect, but made a lot of sense because there was so much uncertainty - and then another huge COVID bill in the spring of 2021, when we should have known better," he said.
Washington for the most part still hasn't made tough budget choices, but it could be starting to snap back. "I think that we're past rock bottom. We're on the rebound," Goldwein said.
-Victor Reklaitis
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09-20-26 0831ET