---
title: "Why analysts say a diesel export ban could backfire"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/299873417.md"
description: "Amid record diesel prices of $6.53/gallon, President Trump proposed an export ban to lower costs. However, analysts warn this could backfire by reducing global supply and hurting refiner profits. Experts attribute high prices primarily to the war in Iran and suggest that restricting exports may tighten domestic fuel supplies, potentially causing further price spikes rather than alleviating them."
datetime: "2026-09-23T09:29:09.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/299873417.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/299873417.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/299873417.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Why analysts say a diesel export ban could backfire

By Nora Redmond

Diesel prices reached their highest levels on record at $6.53 a gallon on Tuesday, according to the AAA.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would back a ban on U.S. diesel exports to help bring down prices. Analysts say it would have the exact opposite effect.

"I've said let's not send out the diesel," he said on the sidelines at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, adding that keeping the fuel in the U.S. could help to lower overall petrol prices. Trump said a decision would come from his administration "fast, one way or the other."

Trump's comments on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly came as diesel prices in the U.S. reached their highest on record at $6.53 a gallon on Tuesday, according to the AAA, up 75% year-on-year.

"The problem with export bans is that they don't increase domestic supply, but may lower supply, causing a further rise in prices," Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at Washington-based think tank the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said.

"Higher diesel prices are a concern, but the main driver of the higher prices is the war in Iran," he said. "End the war in Iran, open up the Strait of Hormuz, and diesel prices will fall. Any other solution will fail."

Bespoke Investment Group also noted that a ban would plausibly lead to a reduction in global diesel supplies, and in turn hurt profits at refining companies.

The group said that a consequence of the ban could be refineries shuttering in the U.S. Gulf Coast due to a lack of adequate storage capacity.

"In other words, the ban would likely reduce global diesel supplies in aggregate, hurting refiner profits," it said.

The research firm pointed out a diesel ban would particularly impact New England, where Canada currently sources nearly half of the diesel consumption. An export ban could potentially lead to Canada selling diesel, at an even higher price, to other countries.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted Wednesday that the U.S. stands as the world's top diesel exporter at present.

"If it restricts exports, global diesel prices could simply spike," she wrote. "And because U.S. refiners would lose part of their export market, they could simply produce less - eventually tightening the supply of other fuels at home."

-Nora Redmond

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-23-26 0529ET

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**