I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Top investor Bernard Zambonin rates SpaceX (SPCX) as a 'Sell', arguing its ~$2 trillion valuation is unjustified despite recent Starship Flight 14 success. While acknowledging strong Starlink revenue growth and potential in AI supercomputing via Colossus, Zambonin calculates intrinsic value at ~$359 billion. He cites high capital expenditures and reliance on future monetization for the remaining $1.58 trillion gap. This contrasts with Wall Street's Moderate Buy consensus, which sees 60% upside.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) delivered an important Starship achievement Monday as Flight 14 reached Earth orbit for the first time and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites. The milestone came despite an engine failure that forced SpaceX to cut the planned 10-hour mission short after about three hours. Still, the successful orbital deployment represented another step toward turning the giant rocket into a reusable platform capable of supporting the company's expanding satellite network.
The implications extend far beyond proving that another Starship mission can complete its objectives. Each V3 satellite is designed to provide 1 Tbps of downlink capacity, while a fully loaded launch could eventually transport as many as 60 units. Regular deployments could therefore allow SpaceX to add Starlink capacity at a far greater rate than Falcon 9 currently provides.
Investor Bernard Zambonin, who ranks among the top 4% of stock experts on TipRanks, sees Flight 14 strengthening one of the more compelling parts of the SpaceX investment case. Starship could support an operation that already generates substantial profits, giving each successful mission greater financial importance.
"The point that excites me the most about all of this is that there is already a very profitable business waiting for that capacity," Zambonin says.
SpaceX's Connectivity segment generated $4.29 billion in second-quarter revenue, representing 66% year-over-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA reached $2.60 billion. Starlink also finished the period with 12 million subscribers, twice the prior-year total. Greater V3 deployment capacity could improve margins further by reducing how much SpaceX spends to add each unit of network capability.
Zambonin also sees another potential source of financial expansion through Colossus, the gigantic AI supercomputer operation previously developed by xAI. Outside customers already provide another monetization route, giving that infrastructure uses beyond training and running internal models such as Grok.
Yet, his enthusiasm for these opportunities does not extend to SPCX stock at its current valuation. Zambonin believes SpaceX now commands a price that requires technological achievements to translate into far greater financial results over time.
"None of this convinces me that the ~$2 trillion market value properly reflects everything that is at stake," Zambonin says.
Using his assumptions, Connectivity receives a $260 billion valuation, while Space gets another $38.5 billion and net cash contributes $60.6 billion. Together, those components reach about $359 billion, leaving around $1.58 trillion dependent upon Colossus, future Starship applications, orbital computing, additional Starlink services, and other opportunities still requiring substantial development.
Zambonin does not dismiss the possibility that these newer operations could eventually become extremely valuable. Rather, his calculation illustrates how much success appears embedded within today's stock price before those projects reach their potential.
"I'm not saying that Colossus alone is worth $1.58 trillion; after all, the residual also includes huge optionality around Starship, orbital compute, new Starlink applications, and a dozen new businesses that SpaceX has yet to fully monetize," the investor explains.
Heavy investment adds another concern when considering what SpaceX must spend to pursue those opportunities. Total capital expenditures reached $28.48 billion during 2026's first six months, while continued Colossus expansion could require another substantial outlay during the second half.
"I don't believe in CapEx numbers short of ~$30 billion for H2 '26, especially with Elon Musk stressing how aggressive he is being with the Colossus expansion," Zambonin says.
Such spending could eventually support far greater profits, although investors must determine whether future returns justify today's premium. That uncertainty leaves Zambonin far less optimistic than Wall Street despite Monday's successful mission.
"Even though I go against the hyper-bullish Street consensus, which sees roughly 50% upside potential for SPCX, I believe that SPCX is likely to at best perform in line with the market, if not underperform," Zambonin opined.
Flight 14 therefore strengthens SpaceX's technological case without resolving Zambonin's central concern regarding what investors already pay. Successful launches can move Starship closer toward regular commercial use, yet current pricing assumes substantial financial gains from several operations still undergoing expansion.
"But at a ~$2 trillion valuation, investors are already paying for a lot—and perhaps too much—of that future execution," Zambonin summed up, giving SPCX a Sell rating. (To watch Zambonin's track record, click here)
Indeed, Wall Street is much more optimistic than Zambonin about SPCX's prospects. Among 34 analysts covering the stock, 27 recommend Buy, 5 assign Hold ratings, and just 2 recommend Sell, resulting in a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The average 12-month price target stands at $233.03, implying about 60% upside from current levels. (See SPCX stock forecast)