--- title: "Tesla analysts expect Q3 deliveries to decline but energy to grow" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/300493988.md" description: "Wall Street analysts expect Tesla's Q3 2026 vehicle deliveries to decline by approximately 7% year-over-year to around 461,974 units, driven by lower Model 3 and Y shipments. Conversely, the energy storage business is projected to grow nearly 18% quarter-over-quarter to 15.9 GWh. Full-year vehicle delivery forecasts stand at 1.77 million for 2026, while energy storage deployments are expected to reach 56.5 GWh annually." datetime: "2026-09-29T23:51:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/300493988.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/300493988.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/300493988.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Tesla analysts expect Q3 deliveries to decline but energy to grow Tesla has released its company-compiled analyst consensus for the third quarter of 2026, with Wall Street expecting vehicle deliveries to decline from both the previous quarter and last year’s record-setting Q3. According to the consensus published on Tuesday, analysts expect Tesla to deliver 461,974 vehicles in Q3, including 450,712 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles and 11,285 from its other vehicle lines. The estimate is based on forecasts from 24 analysts and firms, including UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, JPMorgan and BofA. If Tesla comes close to the consensus figure, deliveries would fall about 3.8% from the 480,126 vehicles delivered in Q2, and roughly 7% from the record 497,099 vehicles delivered during Q3 2025. The figure also falls between some of the estimates that have emerged in recent days. As we reported earlier, UBS is expecting around 470,000 deliveries, while the Visible Alpha consensus has been closer to 454,000. Beyond the quarter, analysts now expect Tesla to deliver approximately 1.77 million vehicles for all of 2026, before increasing to 1.92 million in 2027 and 2.10 million in 2028. Tesla’s energy business is expected to have another strong quarter. The company-compiled consensus from 19 analysts calls for 15.9 GWh of energy storage deployments, with a median estimate of 16.2 GWh. That would represent an increase of nearly 18% from the 13.5 GWh deployed in Q2. For the full year, analysts are forecasting 56.5 GWh of energy storage deployments, followed by 76.0 GWh in 2027. Tesla deployed 46.6 GWh of energy storage in 2025. 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But They're Doing A Lot Better Than Some Competitors](https://longbridge.com/en/news/300810268.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**