Nvidia Stock Forecast: Here's How High Morgan Stanley Thinks NVDA Can Go

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has not needed another explosive rally to keep rewarding investors in 2026. Instead, shares have gradually worked their way higher, gaining about 25% since the start of the year and recently returning to record territory.

There has been plenty happening behind that move. Nvidia recently expanded its partnership with Amazon Web Services, with the companies planning to deploy another 2 million Nvidia GPUs across AWS infrastructure during 2027 and 2028. The agreement also extends into Vera CPUs, NVLink Fusion, networking, and other parts of Nvidia's AI platform. Meanwhile, Nvidia expanded its share-repurchase authorization by $150 billion, raising its remaining buyback capacity to $235 billion.

Those developments have helped push Nvidia back to the top of Morgan Stanley's semiconductor picks. Analyst Joseph Moore, who ranks among the top 1% of Wall Street analysts, sees more room for NVDA to climb, setting a $300 price target that implies about 28% upside from current levels. (To watch Moore's track record, click here)

"We think that outperformance will broaden as consumer agents as a category add to long term AI use cases and token demand," Moore said.

His case reaches well beyond expectations for another wave of GPU orders from major customers. Moore believes the changing economics of AI infrastructure favor Nvidia because customers must address computing requirements alongside power availability, data-center construction, and financing challenges. Nvidia's enormous network of cloud partners gives the company flexibility to pursue capacity wherever sufficient electricity and infrastructure become available. Meanwhile, its willingness to help arrange financing could remove another obstacle for customers looking to continue expanding their AI infrastructure.

Moore also sees room for Nvidia to outperform its own fiscal 2028 revenue expectations. The analyst points to commitments from major customers, particularly Amazon and SpaceX, as evidence that spending could come in stronger than Nvidia's current assumptions. At the same time, Vera CPUs, networking products, and Groq LPUs could give Nvidia additional revenue streams beyond its core accelerator business.

Margins are another important part of the equation as investors look further ahead. Rising memory and other component costs have raised questions about profitability, particularly as Nvidia continues expanding its complex product lineup. However, Moore believes Nvidia has several ways to offset those pressures, including higher pricing and adjustments to product specifications. In his view, gross margins around 72% to 73% could provide a reasonable floor for fiscal 2028.

That combination leaves Moore confident in Nvidia, which he sees as "a more resilient AI beneficiary within semis today."

Overall, Wall Street is leaving little room for skeptics. All 31 analysts covering Nvidia currently rate the stock a Buy, creating a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $324.32 implies about 39% upside from current share price. (See NVDA stock forecast)