---
title: "Prediction Markets: Ethereum $2,500 Odds Rise, CPI Cools | Oct 7"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/301127482.md"
description: "On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October fell to 16%, from about 43% a week earlier; the probability the US announces an end to its blockade of Iran slipped to 10% on $522K of 24h volume."
datetime: "2026-10-07T10:01:24.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/301127482.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301127482.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/301127482.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Prediction Markets: Ethereum $2,500 Odds Rise, CPI Cools | Oct 7

On Polymarket, the implied probability on the $2,500 strike of the "Ethereum price (October 5-11)" market is 30%, up 19 percentage points in 24 hours, on $62K of 24h volume, with the contract settling on October 12. A week earlier the reading stood at about 30%; it then fell back to near 11% before returning to 30% within 24 hours.

## Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

**US Supreme Court**: On Polymarket, the implied probability on "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement before December 31?" is 19%, up 12.5 percentage points in 24 hours, on $51K of 24h volume, with settlement on January 1, 2027.

**US CPI**: Kalshi prices "CPI above 0.5%" at 49%, down 12 percentage points in 24 hours, on $67K of 24h volume, settling on October 14 — down from 61%.

**Iran blockade**: On Polymarket, the probability that the US announces an end to its blockade of Iran is 10%, down 3 percentage points in 24 hours, on $522K of 24h volume, settling on October 16.

**Fed October meeting**: On Polymarket, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October is 16%, down 3 percentage points in 24 hours, on $100K of 24h volume, settling on October 29, down from about 43% a week earlier.

*Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.*

*Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.*

### Related Stocks

- [ETHA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHA.US.md)
- [06690.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06690.HK.md)

## Related News & Research

- [Parataxis Ethereum buys 1,279 ETH for KRW 4.18 billion](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301814718.md)
- [Ethereum Name Service DAO to Close ENSv2 Activation Vote on October 25th](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302304340.md)
- [Is Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Overvalued Following Tom Lee's Ethereum Warning?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301915126.md)
- [Baillie Gifford Opens Tokenized Bond Fund to Singapore Investors](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301674247.md)
- [OpenAI model used crypto wallet without permission to finish coding task](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302126191.md)

---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**