Trump Says We Have ‘The Best’ Poverty And Grocery Prices Have Come ‘Way Down’ Since Biden Was In Office — Is He Right?

The grocery aisle is where President Donald Trump’s economic message runs into a problem. While the latest federal data show the U.S. poverty rate reached a historic low and real median household income hit a record, grocery prices have continued to rise.

"We have the best, I guess you could say poverty," Trump told reporters in September. "They talk poverty. We have the best poverty numbers ever in the history of our country. In other words, there’s less poverty now than at any time in the history of our country."

The first part of that claim is backed by recent Census data.

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The official U.S. poverty rate fell to 10.2% last year, down from 10.7% in 2024 and the lowest rate in the history of the series, which dates back to 1959. About 34.5 million people were still below the official poverty threshold. The official child poverty rate also reached a historic low of 13.4%. 

Trump then pointed to income.

"And we have the best income numbers per individual in the history of our country," Trump said. "People are making more money than they’ve ever made before."

There’s a distinction in the government data. The Census Bureau measures median household income rather than income per individual. In 2025, real median household income reached $87,460, a 2.6% increase from 2024 and the highest level recorded since the series began in 1967. 

The poverty picture also depends on which measure is used.

The supplemental poverty measure came in at 13.1% in 2025 unchanged from the prior year. Unlike the official poverty measure, the SPM accounts for factors including government benefits, taxes, medical expenses, work expenses and geographic differences in housing costs. 

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Grocery Prices Tell A Different Story

Trump then moved to the cost of food.

"But prices for groceries have come way down from Biden," he said. "Almost every price has come way down."

But the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis shows prices for groceries have risen 3.4% since January 2025, when Trump assumed his second term. 

Meanwhile, five of the six grocery categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were substantially higher in August from January 2025: cereals and bakery products were 3.3% higher; meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose 3%; fruits and vegetables advanced 4.6%; nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials popped 6.3%; and other food at home added 3%. The final category, dairy and related products, was basically flat.

Trump also brought oil into the discussion.

"Oil will come dropping down as soon as Iran gives up, as soon as the war is over, which will be soon," Trump said. "Oil is going to come plummeting down, and all prices are coming down."

He later added, "And remember one thing, oil is less expensive now than it was under the Biden administration."

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However, oil prices – a major driver of inflation – are higher now than they were at the end of the Biden administration. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, was recently trading at nearly $89 per barrel, up from $78 per barrel in January 2025. 

The remarks therefore contain claims that land very differently against the data. The official poverty rate really did hit a historic low, and real median household income reached a record in 2025. But the grocery-price claim doesn’t match the latest federal inflation figures.

The numbers tell a story with two very different chapters. Poverty and household income produced record readings in the latest Census report. The supermarket checkout line, meanwhile, hasn’t gotten cheaper across the board. 

Nobody can control what a dozen eggs costs next month, but you can control what happens to the money you do have. Even if higher grocery bills are squeezing the budget, putting money into savings or investments can give it a chance to grow over time. Chime Invest, for example, lets eligible members start investing in stocks and ETFs with as little as $1, giving those who are ready to start a way to put even a small amount of money to work. 

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