Weekly Recap | IBIT.US -2.47%, Bitcoin tests $80,000

The Week

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) closed the week at $46.55, down 2.47%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, leaving the fund about 3.62 percentage points behind the benchmark. The week turned into a fade after a firm start: Monday opened at $48.74 and touched a weekly high of $49.12; Tuesday held near $49; Wednesday gapped lower and closed at $47.21; Thursday extended the drop to a weekly low of $45.44; Friday stabilised at $46.55. Weekly amplitude came to 7.55%, noticeably wider than the prior rhythm.

Sector News

Crypto-facing headlines were dense this week. On the regulatory side, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Stellar, Tezos and XRP as digital commodities; with the CLARITY Act stalled, the CFTC chair signalled new platform rules are on the way. Fund flows were split: one report on 9 October put October crypto ETF outflows near $1 billion, with Bitcoin ETFs shedding $244 million; against that, Strive made its largest single purchase in four months, adding 2,000 BTC to reach 29,462 BTC. Spot Bitcoin slid from above $82,000 midweek toward $80,000 before rebounding past $82,000 on Friday. Analyst ranges for the fourth quarter cluster around $80,000 to $90,000, with some flagging $83,000 to $72,000 as the key support zone.

The Week Ahead

The macro calendar brings the US NFIB small-business optimism index and existing-home sales on Tuesday, 13 October, followed by US CPI and core CPI on Wednesday, 14 October. Headline CPI carries a prior of 3.4% against a 3.7% forecast, while core CPI has a prior of 2.4% and a 2.5% forecast. A surprise in either direction could feed through the dollar and yields into Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETF volatility. Also worth tracking: Strategy’s next Bitcoin treasury update on 29 October, and any follow-through after Thailand’s SEC cleared the way for local spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. Friday’s V-shaped bounce and whether Bitcoin can hold the $80,000 round number shape the early mood.

In Short

This week laid two forces side by side. The regulatory track moved forward: Bitcoin and several peers were formally classified as digital commodities, and Thailand opened a path for local spot ETFs. The near-term flow picture was less supportive: crypto ETFs logged close to $1 billion of monthly outflows, Bitcoin ETFs among them, and spot Bitcoin probed the $80,000 area. IBIT itself amplified the contrast, trailing the S&P 500 by about 3.62 percentage points on the week. The next test is whether the CPI prints on 14 October recalibrate rate expectations and risk appetite, and whether Bitcoin’s $80,000 support holds. Institutional direction and short-term flows are not yet pointing the same way; the data will show if that gap narrows.

This article is generated by LongbridgeAI from market data, for information only and not investment advice.