---
title: "Prediction Markets: Bitcoin Price Slips, Fed Hold at 86% | Oct 16"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/302091365.md"
description: "Bitcoin's $77,500 October tier fell to 36%, down 13 percentage points on $244K of 24h volume; Russia-Ukraine peace-deal probability slid to 24%, and SpaceX 2026 largest-IPO pricing rose to 64%."
datetime: "2026-10-16T10:01:51.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/302091365.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302091365.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/302091365.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Prediction Markets: Bitcoin Price Slips, Fed Hold at 86% | Oct 16

On Polymarket, the $77,500 tier of the "What price will Bitcoin hit in October" market carries a 36% implied probability, down 13 percentage points over 24 hours on $244K of 24h volume, and the contract settles on November 1. The same tier stood at roughly 39% a week ago, rebounded at one point in between, and slipped back to 36% within 24 hours. The Block reported on October 14, citing data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, that the September US inflation reading came in above market expectations, rekindling concerns about further Fed rate hikes, with crypto assets and tech stocks coming under pressure in tandem.

## Market Implication

Cooling bitcoin price expectations has historically tended to draw market attention to the two spot bitcoin ETFs, IBIT and FBTC, which offer exposure without requiring direct holding of the underlying asset. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.)

## Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

**Fed on hold in October**: on Polymarket, the "Fed October decision" contract pricing no change in rates carries an 86% implied probability, up 12 percentage points over 24 hours on $861K of 24h volume; Kalshi prices the same event at 87%, up 11 percentage points, on $295K of volume. That is up from 74% to 86%, against roughly 84% a week ago.

**Largest 2026 IPO**: on Polymarket, the implied probability that SpaceX is the largest IPO by market value in 2026 is 64%, up 11 percentage points over 24 hours on $58K of 24h volume, and up 20.5 percentage points over seven days, with the contract settling on January 2, 2027.

**Russia-Ukraine talks by late November**: on Polymarket, the implied probability of "Russia-Ukraine peace talks (before November 30)" is 24%, down 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours on $110K of 24h volume; it has fallen from 32% to 24%, and stood at roughly 49% a week ago.

**Largest company by end-2026**: on Polymarket, the implied probability that Apple is the largest company by market value at the end of December 2026 is 29%, down 4.8 percentage points over 24 hours on $108K of 24h volume, and up 18.9 percentage points over seven days, with the contract settling on January 1, 2027.

*Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.*

*Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.*

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**