--- title: "S&P 500 Could Hit 9,000 Without Iran War: Why Kobeissi Letter Sees a ‘Historic Opportunity’ for a ‘Violent Rally’" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/302108041.md" description: "The Kobeissi Letter argues the S&P 500 could exceed 9,000 absent the Iran War, citing a 'historic opportunity' for a violent rally. Despite oil prices over $100 and inflation above target, the index remains near record highs, creating a 'Bull-Bear' paradox where most constituents trade significantly below peaks. The analysis highlights that only 10 stocks drove recent gains, with large-cap tech offering deep discounts. Ending the conflict and energy crisis could trigger a bullish domino effect, supported by strong Q2 earnings growth." datetime: "2026-10-16T12:09:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/302108041.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302108041.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/302108041.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # S&P 500 Could Hit 9,000 Without Iran War: Why Kobeissi Letter Sees a ‘Historic Opportunity’ for a ‘Violent Rally’ The S&P 500 index could trade above the 9,000 level if the Iran War had not occurred, according to analysis by **The Kobeissi Letter**. The financial publication states that the current market environment presents a “historic opportunity” that could trigger a “violent rally” in equities. ## **The ‘Bull-Bear’ Market Paradox** The Kobeissi Letter notes that the S&P 500 is trading about 2% away from a record high despite oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The publication states the index is simultaneously near record highs while experiencing an internal bear market. The Kobeissi Letter describes this phenomenon as a “Bull-Bear” Market. According to the analysis, 84% of S&P 500 constituents are trading at least 10% below their all-time highs. Furthermore, 59% of the stocks in the index are down at least 20% from their highs. > https://t.co/WahTIU665I > > — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 15, 2026 **Read Also: S&P 500 Above 8,000? Fidelity’s Timmer Sees Q3 Earnings and Seasonal Tailwinds Powering Bull Market** ## **Market Concentration and ‘Deep Discounts’** The newsletter states that just 10 stocks have driven 70% of the index’s gains since its March 30 bottom. The Kobeissi Letter states that large-cap technology stocks have “deep discounts priced-in to their stocks,” maintaining that these equities would trade much higher absent recent macroeconomic factors. “Without the Iran War, the S&P 500 could be at 9,000+,” the publication claims. The Kobeissi Letter asserts that ending the conflict and the global energy crisis would cause a “domino effect in the bullish direction.” It also highlights that the S&P 500 posted 52% blended earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, which The Kobeissi Letter says provides fundamental support for the artificial intelligence (AI) narrative. ## **Potential for a ‘Violent Rally’** The analysis states that the March 30 market bottom functioned as a “gift to investors” and notes that technology stocks were sold with “irrational price action.” The Kobeissi Letter concludes that a “stealth” bear market has suppressed equity valuations. The publication expects that if market breadth widens and current macroeconomic headwinds are priced out, the current backdrop can “catalyze a violent rally in the S&P 500.” ## **How Has the Stock Market Performed?** The S&P 500 index has advanced 13.13% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 14.93%, and the Dow Jones gained 8.56% YTD. On Thursday, the **SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust** (NYSE:SPY) and **Invesco QQQ Trust ETF** (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY rose 0.28% to $771.79, while QQQ declined 0.13% to $728.00. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, **State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust** (NYSE:DIA), ended 1.08% higher at $521.18. In premarket trading on Thursday, SPY was up 0.17%, QQQ fell 0.07%, and DIA advanced by 0.02%. **Read Also: AI Was Expected to Drain Charles Schwab’s Cash — CEO Rick Wurster Says Traders Are Doing the Opposite: ‘The More People Use AI, the More Cash They Hold’** ***Disclaimer*:** *This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.* Image via Shutterstock ### Related Stocks - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [SPDN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPDN.US.md) - [SPLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPLG.US.md) - [SPUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPUU.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Peter Schiff Warns Trump’s ‘Booming’ Stock Market Boast Is a Mirage: 479 Stocks Hit 52-Week Lows on Wednesday, While Only 60 Set Highs](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301958076.md) - ["Only Fear Is Of The Right-Tail": McElligott Shows Why The S&P Is Blind To The Carnage Beneath It](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301425134.md) - [Tech Stock Sell-Off: 1 Unstoppable ETF to Buy on the Dip in 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302186710.md) - [Invesco QQQ $QQQ Shares Sold by Howard Capital Management LLC](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302185824.md) - [QQQ ETF Remains Under Pressure on Tuesday, October 13. Here's Why](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301742089.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**