Weekly Recap | PBR.US +2.77%, closing in on record highs

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Petrobras (PBR) rose 2.77% this week to $26.00, outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 4.72 percentage points. Trading was choppy but tilted higher: the stock opened at $25.44 on Monday and dipped to a weekly low of $25.11, then pushed up on Wednesday and Friday, closing near the week’s high of $26.10. Average daily volume came in around 18.5m shares, about 4.3% below the 60-day median, so turnover was fairly contained.

The Week

Petrobras (PBR) rose 2.77% this week to $26.00, outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 4.72 percentage points. Trading was choppy but tilted higher: the stock opened at $25.44 on Monday and dipped to a weekly low of $25.11, then pushed up on Wednesday and Friday, closing near the week’s high of $26.10. Average daily volume came in around 18.5m shares, about 4.3% below the 60-day median, so turnover was fairly contained.

Key Events

The company’s news flow was concentrated on 14 October. Petrobras signed the Berbigão-Sururu balancing agreements, with an expected payment of $859m by November. On the same day the firm disclosed receipt of roughly BRL 2.8bn tied to Brazil’s petrol and diesel subsidy programme, followed by confirmation of a new round of fuel subsidies. Petrobras also said it will publish third-quarter results on 10 November. Two 6-K filings landed on Thursday, and Franchise GP Ltd disclosed on Friday that it had acquired 929,940 shares.

Analyst Ratings

Across 14 covering institutions, 8 rate the stock buy, 3 rate it overweight and 3 rate it hold, with no sell or underweight ratings. The consensus recommendation is buy, and the consensus target of $24.09 sits roughly 7.3% below the current $26.00 price. Targets range from $17.40 to $31.00, pointing to a fairly wide spread of views. Within the integrated oil and gas industry, Petrobras ranks 9th out of 15 comparable names.

The Week Ahead

On the macro side, Monday brings the US NAHB housing market index, Tuesday has housing starts and building permits, and Wednesday’s EIA weekly crude and Cushing inventory data could move oil prices and the energy complex. The main company event is the third-quarter earnings call after the close on 10 November, where the market is looking for EPS of $1.2836 on revenue of $33.2bn.

In Short

The stock pushed higher in a week that brought several agreements and subsidy receipts. Broker ratings skew positive, though the consensus target sits below spot, and the latest session showed large-lot money as a net seller while small and medium flows were more active. The near-term story turns on oil price moves and whether third-quarter results back up the market’s current implied expectations.

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