--- title: "Tesla Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Will Elon Musk Discuss a SpaceX Merger?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/302565997.md" description: "Tesla reports Q3 earnings after bell Wednesday. Analysts expect $0.43 EPS on $27.88B revenue, below prior year levels, despite vehicle deliveries beating estimates. Traders focus on potential SpaceX merger discussions, Cybercab updates, and regulatory scrutiny. Polymarket gives only a 36% chance of beating earnings. Capital spending is expected to triple to $7.8B, significantly outpacing operating cash flow." datetime: "2026-10-21T12:26:45.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/302565997.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302565997.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/302565997.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Tesla Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Will Elon Musk Discuss a SpaceX Merger? **Tesla Inc.** (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports third-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday, a day after CEO **Elon Musk** confirmed that independent committees are exploring a merger with **SpaceX** (NASDAQ:SPCX). Analysts expect adjusted earnings of 43 cents a share on $27.88 billion in revenue, both below year-ago levels. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles last quarter, beating estimates but falling 2% year over year. Shares are down roughly 17% this year. Polymarket gives Tesla just a 36% chance of beating earnings expectations, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on what Musk and his team will say. ### What Kalshi Predicts Tesla Will Say “Cybercab” and “Robotaxi” both trade at 99%. Tesla has registered nearly 350 Cybercabs in Austin, but only 187 are active, according to MarketWatch. “Terafab” sits at 92%. Musk said Tuesday that his chipmaking project aims to produce its first test chip by mid-2027, with volume production targeted for 2028. “Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation” trades at 91%. Federal safety officials are investigating whether Tesla’s steering-wheel-free Cybercab complies with vehicle safety standards, potentially complicating its expansion. “SpaceX / xAI” stands at 89%, although either name qualifies. Musk outlined potential benefits of a merger Tuesday, including shared AI software, chipmaking and robotics. He cautioned that no deal is guaranteed. “Competition” trades at 75%. Tesla lost its global electric-vehicle sales crown to China’s **BYD** last year, while analysts expect automotive revenue to fall nearly 7% this quarter despite better-than-expected deliveries. “Samsung” trades at 68%. Tesla already has a $16.5 billion agreement with **Samsung Electronics** to manufacture its AI6 chips, even as Musk pursues his own factories to meet future demand. “Megapack 3” trades at 66%. Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage last quarter, up nearly 10%, with analysts expecting $3.7 billion in energy revenue. Its energy division chief, Mike Snyder, departed last week as the company expands battery production in Texas. ### What Kalshi Predicts Tesla Will Skip “Intel” sits at 47%, despite **Intel Corp.** (NASDAQ:INTC) joining the Terafab initiative in April. Its precise role remains unclear. “Merge / Merger” sits at 42%, up six points. Independent board committees are handling negotiations, with Musk recusing himself over conflicts of interest. That may limit what management says about a possible deal. “Safety Monitor” trades at 40%. These are employees who ride in Tesla’s robotaxis to supervise operations, although some vehicles now operate without one. “Waymo” trades at just 29%. Traders expect plenty of robotaxi talk, but not necessarily a mention of Tesla’s driverless rival, owned by **Alphabet Inc.** (NASDAQ:GOOGL). ### Reading the Board Goldman Sachs says updates on robotaxis, Full Self-Driving and Optimus may matter more to Tesla shares than quarterly earnings. But analysts expect Tesla’s capital spending to more than triple from a year ago, reaching nearly $7.8 billion this quarter, against just $3.3 billion in operating cash flow. That would leave Tesla burning approximately $4.5 billion in cash after capital spending, as Musk pours money into robotaxis, humanoid robots and chipmaking. Investor **Ross Gerber** suggested Musk deliberately scheduled SpaceX’s earnings first to showcase the stronger business. “This is a good part of Elon’s empire, and we will see the bad news part tomorrow,” Gerber told Bloomberg Tuesday. *Image: Shutterstock* *Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.* **Read Also: Elon Musk Has a Pattern, Says Analyst Who Predicted SpaceX Spectrum Deal** ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [CRSH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRSH.US.md) - [TESC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESC.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TEST.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TEST.US.md) - [TLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLA.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSIB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSIB.US.md) - [TSII.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSII.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLI.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLO.US.md) - [TSLP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLP.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TSLV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLV.US.md) - [TSLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLW.US.md) - [TSLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLY.US.md) - [TSLZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [TSW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSW.US.md) - [TSYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSYY.US.md) - [TYYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TYYY.US.md) - [07766.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [09366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [01211.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01211.HK.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [US SEC seeks to close Musk, Tesla settlement fund](https://longbridge.com/en/news/305073867.md) - [SpaceX, Tesla merger less likely after midterms. Texas Gov. requests pause on land talks.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304688946.md) - [Musk says Cybertruck isn’t dying from weak sales — the numbers disagree](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304862893.md) - [Tesla to wind down Cybertruck production at Texas gigafactory next year, Musk says](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304590962.md) - [Musk Winds Down Cybertruck After Sales Collapse, Shifts Tesla Focus to Cybercab](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304663662.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**