--- title: "Prediction Markets: Ukraine Talks Jump, Bitcoin $85K Cools | Oct 22" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/302693066.md" description: "On Polymarket, the probability of Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31 rose 30.5 percentage points to 74% on $63K of 24h volume. Bitcoin $85K October pricing fell 24.5pp to 48%; the US-Iran ceasefire contract slipped to 74%, and Texas Democratic candidate rose to 36%." datetime: "2026-10-22T10:01:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/302693066.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302693066.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/302693066.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Prediction Markets: Ukraine Talks Jump, Bitcoin $85K Cools | Oct 22 On Polymarket, the market-implied probability that Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks before December 31 is 74%, up 30.5 percentage points over 24 hours from about 45% a week earlier, on $63K of 24h volume. Reuters reported on October 21, citing Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, that Russia is "in principle ready" to resume trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine talks around November 10, with Abu Dhabi seen as a possible venue. The same report, citing a US official who asked not to be named, said earlier talks in St Petersburg covered security guarantees and post-war economic arrangements among the core elements of a peace framework. The contract settles on January 1, 2027, and whether the talks go ahead as scheduled is still unresolved. ## Market Implication Geopolitical events give no single-direction signal for asset prices: de-escalation and a breakdown in talks carry opposite implications for energy supply and risk appetite. This probability reading is therefore better treated as a cross-check spanning both energy supply and risk appetite than as a directional call on any single sector. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.) ## Elsewhere in Prediction Markets **Bitcoin hits $85K in October**: on Polymarket the contract is priced at 48%, down 24.5 percentage points over 24 hours on $126K of 24h volume, easing from about 73% a day earlier; a week ago it stood at about 48%. **Bitcoin below $80K on October 19-25**: the contract sits at 40%, up 21 percentage points over 24 hours on $74K of 24h volume, from about 19% a day earlier; a week ago it was also around 40%. **US-Iran ceasefire through October 31**: the probability is 74% on Polymarket, down 8 percentage points over 24 hours on $434K of 24h volume, from about 82% a day earlier and about 80% a week ago. **Texas governor race**: the implied probability for Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa rose to 36%, up 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours on $56K of 24h volume, from about 27% a day earlier and about 23% a week ago. *Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.* *Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. 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