--- title: "Earnings Preview | Meta reports after the US close — capex and Muse monetisation are the swing factors" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/302694304.md" description: "Consensus puts revenue at $63.41 billion, up about 24% year on year. Capex of $40.7 billion and a Muse monetisation update decide how the print trades." datetime: "2026-10-22T10:07:48.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/302694304.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302694304.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/302694304.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Earnings Preview | Meta reports after the US close — capex and Muse monetisation are the swing factors ## The Estimates Consensus puts revenue at $63.41 billion, up about 24% year on year, inside a $61 billion to $64 billion range. That is slower than the 28% Meta (META.US) managed in the second quarter. Fiscal 2026 third-quarter results land after the US close. GAAP EPS averages $5.46 against a $6.36 median, within a $2.61 to $7.64 range. The adjusted mean is $6.80; one-off items explain the gap. Gross margin is seen at 79.9% versus 82.0% a year ago. Capex is pencilled at $40.7 billion, implying negative free cash flow of $9.66 billion. ## Track Record Revenue growth has not stalled, but the quality of earnings is changing. Year-on-year growth ran 26.2%, 23.8%, 33.1% and 28.0% over the last four quarters. Family of Apps still supplies more than 99% of revenue. Operating margin fell from 43.0% in the second quarter of 2025 to 34.8% a year later. Capex rose from $18.8 billion to $30.1 billion across that span. Free cash flow dropped from $10.9 billion in the first quarter to $0.6 billion in the second. ## What to Watch Muse needs numbers, not narrative — a take rate and a user count outrank the concept. JPMorgan said in late September the app, launched at Connect, could be the strongest consumer app since ChatGPT. Jefferies lifted its target to $875, and the late-September enterprise AI platform drew comment from BofA Securities and Citi. Capex is the second test. Goldman Sachs expects 2027 capex above $220 billion; BofA raised its forecast to $205 billion in mid-October. Another upgrade to this quarter's $40.7 billion would bring depreciation pressure on gross margin sooner. Legal charges are the third swing factor. BofA's mid-October preview cut its GAAP EPS estimate to $3.79, assuming about $10 billion of legal costs. New Mexico's $25 billion fine is under appeal, and reports point to a big cut. ## Analyst Ratings Street targets moved higher over the past month, and the end points are far apart. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $860 from $725 on 14 October, keeping a buy rating. Morgan Stanley went to $820 from $775 on 19 October, still overweight. JPMorgan moved to $920 from $820 in late September, while BofA Securities and Citi held at $810 and $800. Susquehanna cut to $650 in late September. Against $697.52, the $920 target implies roughly 30% upside and $650 about 7% below. The split is over Muse monetisation speed and the capex path. ## In Short The market has priced certainty on revenue and left a cushion on costs. Watch whether capex guidance is raised again, whether Muse arrives with metrics, and how fast depreciation and legal costs squeeze margin. The revenue bar is low; negative free cash flow and a falling margin are the pricing points. ### Related Stocks - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [FBL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBL.US.md) - [METU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/METU.US.md) - [METD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/METD.US.md) - [FBY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBY.US.md) - [METW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/METW.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Meta Earnings Preview: Muse, AI Capex and Q3 Outlook](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302318608.md) - [Meta has strong chance of getting $25 billion New Mexico penalty slashed on appeal, experts say](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302692678.md) - [Meta Platforms’ $25B Penalty Has a Second Bill: $3.5B a Year](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302740523.md) - [Meta ordered to pay $25 billion to New Mexico after jury finds company misled consumers about data privacy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302593425.md) - [Meta Platforms, Inc. $META Shares Sold by Investment Research Partners LLC](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302837456.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**