---
title: "海豚日报 | Anthropic Delivers, META 'siphons' RMB 95bn — Is the AI funding panic over?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/303147421.md"
datetime: "2026-10-27T00:53:25.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303147421.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303147421.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303147421.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# 海豚日报 | Anthropic Delivers, META 'siphons' RMB 95bn — Is the AI funding panic over?

Good morning! It is Oct 27, 2026 (Beijing time). Dolphin Research brings you a one-glance read on global markets.

**Trading focus**: Anthropic filed its S-1, posting H1 revenue of $16.3bn and turning FCF positive after stock-based comp, validating the biz model. The top-5 customer mix dropped to 21%, easing some short concerns. The Oct ARR line was left blank, markets read it positively and started to bet on a 'vertical Oct' ramp.

On the same day, META launched up to $95bn in equity financing, while SPCX signed roughly $40bn in GPU lease financing. Three financing prints helped end last week's de-leveraging.

**Macro tone**: Ahead of Wed's FOMC, policy rates are unchanged, with the 10Y UST around 4.99% and an ~91% probability of no move. Brent pulled back from a 5+ month high to about $116.

**Key movers**: SOX +2.8%, Nasdaq 100 +1.1%. Optical led (LITE +8.2%, NOK +6.1%, COHR +5.8%), with memory following (SKHY +4.1%, MU +3.0%). META -1.9%, and VZ fell 3.5% post-earnings.

**Near-term watch**: STX reports tonight (Wed morning Beijing time). SK Hynix reports Wed morning, with chatter of a KRW 50–60tn shareholder return plan.

MSFT and GOOGL report Wed night. FOMC decision early Thu, followed by AMZN and INTC Thu night; Anthropic to backfill Oct ARR mid-next week and list the week of 11/16.

$ Anthropic.NA , $ Meta Platforms.US , $ NVIDIA.US , $ Broadcom.US , $ SpaceX.US , $ Microsoft.US , $ Alphabet - C.US , $ Amazon.US ,$ Lumentum.US , $ SK Hynix.US , $ Micron Tech.US , $ Seagate Tech.US , $ Nokia Oyj.US , $ Verizon.US , $ Tesla.US 

Performance window: for US and global assets, moves are vs. Mon (10/26) close. Japan and Korea are vs. prior close at today’s open, and Taiwan reopened at 9:00.

**1\. Anthropic S-1 filed: FCF turned positive, customer mix broadened, and Oct ARR is the next trigger**

The S-1 shows H1 revenue of $16.3bn and a net loss of $80.7bn, with over $72bn from fair value changes on convertibles. FCF after SBC is positive, indicating better-than-expected operating leverage.

**Customer concentration improved:** the top-5 accounted for roughly 36% in Q1, falling to about 21% in Q3. Revenue from the rest rose roughly 4.4x over two quarters to about $13.3bn, while customers spending over $100k annually increased from 950+ to 11,900+.

**Customer tiers:** 1,900+ customers spend over $1mn annually, and roughly 250 spend above $10mn.

**Channels:** 48% of revenue came via cloud marketplaces such as AWS Bedrock, GOOGL Vertex, and MSFT Foundry. On compute, combined spend tied to AVGO, SPCX’s AI business, NVDA and Nscale totals about $326.3bn.

Capex in H1 was just $482mn, implying compute is almost entirely rented, with lease obligations of about $782bn. This effectively 'outsources' capex to lessors and financiers.

**The key is Oct ARR:** the S-1 leaves a placeholder, with an updated version expected mid-next week. Street bridge models use $69.6bn at end-Sep as the base, with a base case of about $73.9bn by end-Oct. A print above $78bn would reopen debate on reaching a $100bn ARR run-rate by year-end.

**Bull case:** OpenRouter tokens in Oct were ~2.7x Sep, with unit price down to about $0.80 per mn tokens and spend up ~50%. Ramp data show Anthropic’s spend share rebounding from 53.8% the week of 9/13 to 60.1% by 10/11.

**Bear case:** OpenRouter is under 1% of Anthropic’s ARR, and Ramp samples mid-sized firms, covering a combined ~20%. Also, client spend in the two weeks to Jan 2 fell roughly 20% vs. the prior two weeks, implying Dec ARR may be ~10% understated.

**Dolphin view: 'More diversified customers + positive FCF' alleviates concerns that lab revenue cannot support compute commitments. But Oct ARR is the valuation switch for the AI chain, and we will follow up with deeper analysis.**

**2\. Three financing prints landed the same day: the window is open, just pricier**

**META launched up to $95bn in equity financing:** the first $35bn includes $22.5bn forward sales of Class A common and about $12.5bn of mandatorily convertible preferreds. After Class C lists in 2027, META plans an ~ $60bn ATM; NVDA, AMD, and AVGO are interested in up to $5bn of subscriptions.

**SPCX signed roughly $40bn GPU equipment lease financing with Apollo,** procuring NVDA Vera Rubin with batches on ~5-year terms and deliveries starting H1 2027. Per Semafor, some bonds priced as high as 8.75%, while Musk spent the weekend saying the bond market is 'almost shut' to new clouds.

New cloud names were very volatile all day: CRWV opened -4.2%, rallied to +6.6%, and closed +1.8%, while NBIS -3.4%. Miners rebounded more steadily (WULF +5.8%, GLXY +6.8%). Daily B300 GPU rental rates rose 4.7% and +8.6% on the week.

**Dolphin view: META’s Class C is essentially pre-building a financing channel for future investment, now with concrete size. Near-term real dilution is about 5.7%, modest enough to ease some nerves, but financing overhang on valuation will not vanish.** ([*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44545011))

**3\. Optical and memory led the rebound: tight-supply segments recover first**

**Optical:** LITE +8.2%, TSEM +6.7%, AAOI +6.6%, NOK +6.1%, COHR +5.8%, CIEN +4.9%. StoneX initiated LITE and COHR at Buy, calling qualified optical capacity a scarce asset. Even if EML capacity grows 50%+ by end-2026, AI electro-optical supply is effectively booked through early 2029.

**Memory:** SKHY +4.1%, MU +3.0%, SNDK +1.4%. DRAM spot keeps making new highs, and Q4 contract tracking looks better than NAND. BofA relayed MU management’s view that supply in 2027/28 will be tighter than 2026, with about 35% of sales locked at floors above the prior cycle peak.

Equipment also bounced: LRCX +3.2%, AMAT +2.7%. Bears argue WFE at $220–300bn in 2027/28 has no further upside, while bulls bet on rising etch intensity and LRCX taking share from AMAT.

**Dolphin view: This rebound is again optical first, then memory, consistent with our call. With smaller caps and route shifts, the 2027 winners have more upside than memory after sharp price gains.**

**4\. Dolphin Deep Dive | HDDs, once doubted, now the 'data end-state' for AI**

New HDD capacity will only roll out gradually after 2028. From investment to stable mass production, a new fab takes at least two years, with time consumed by cleanroom tools, yield tuning, and full-drive testing. Toshiba’s planned 40TB+ products remain sampling at 30–34TB.

STX and WDC explicitly will not add spindle capacity, keeping capex at 4%–6% of revenue over time. Using HAMR to lift density, nearline capacity rises ~25% per year, and both say incremental GP from price hikes is ~90%.

**Dolphin view: The only truly relieving supply additions on the component side will come after 2028. 'No expansion, density up, price-led' is the core logic of this HDD cycle.** ([*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44544204))

**1\. No major data today, but FOMC and PCE land this week**

**USTs and liquidity**: the 10Y held around 4.99%, the 2Y rose 4bps to about 4.72%, and the $69bn 2Y auction tailed. The 30Y fell 2bps to 5.30%.

**Fed path**: odds of no change on Wed (02:00 Beijing time Thu) are ~91%, with markets pricing a Dec hike. GS expects a skip in Oct and a second hike in Dec to finish the cycle.

**GS rationale**: tariffs, Iran-related energy shocks, and mismeasured AI-related prices collectively explain the full 1.1ppt overshoot in core PCE vs. target. Inflation trends should improve materially by 2027.

**This week’s data**: Tue Sep new home sales, Thu Sep PCE. A firm PCE would cement a Dec hike, while a soft print leaves room for long-end yields to fall.

**Oil**: officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Iran to mediate, and Iran signaled openness to regional proposals. WTI fell 1.5% to about $102, and Brent -0.8% to about $116.

**2\. High-vol assets (10/26)**

**SOX +2.8%, NDX100 +1.1%**: Anthropic’s S-1 plus financing headlines drove an AI infra rebound. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, but the equal-weight S&P fell 0.8%, with gains concentrated in megacaps.

\- **Index drag from megacaps**: since 10/6, the S&P is down 2.5%, though 70% of constituents are up. NVDA, AVGO, META, and GOOGL carry ~17% weight and fell 8%–14%, driving the drop.

**VIX -5.5% to ~18.5**: skew fell sharply after the weekend. Desks see this as a rebound after high-frequency supply paused, with no clear aggressive buying in AI/tech yet.

**Brazil ETF about -20%**: Lula won unexpectedly, with Brazil’s equity index down ~14% and BRL down over 8%. MELI -7.8%.

**Gold +0.5% to ~ $4,017**: it briefly dipped below $3,980 intraday before bouncing. Bitcoin held around $80k.

**3\. Asia open and today’s setup (10/27)**

**Asia open**: Nikkei +0.6% (later ~ +1.7%). KOSPI +3.5% (later ~ +3.9%), with SK Hynix +5.6% and Samsung +4.2% as funds front-run earnings and capital return. HSI night futures were ~ +0.1% and FTSE A50 futures ~ +0.2%.

**Memory read-across**: SKHY US ADR +4.1% and MU +3.0%, plus capital return chatter pre-earnings → Korea memory opened strong. But KOSPI fell 1.5% yesterday, and retail leverage is rising, amplifying swings.

**Optical read-across**: US optical led, and the FCC may restrict China optical modules → A-share optical module sentiment is split. US supplier benefit is a risk for names like Zhongji Xuchuang, but stronger demand visibility is a shared positive.

**Frontier LLMs and platforms**: HSI +0.5% yesterday and HSTECH -0.4%. After Kimi K3.1 Pro went live, it apologized for quota drain too fast, exposing the tension in domestic models between lower per-token price and high Agent consumption.

\- **Model pricing cuts**: OpenAI launched GPT-6.1 Terra at $1 per mn input tokens and $5 per mn output tokens. Mid-tier model pricing keeps falling, and pressure on domestic models persists.

**META** | $1.61tn | **-1.9%**

Some analysts estimate $80bn cash + about $160bn OP cash flow in 2027 + $95bn financing − $47bn Q4 capex leaves ~$288bn of deployable funds by 2027. That is above the high end of market capex expectations of ~$250bn.

Bear view: some argue MSFT and AMZN can accelerate capex by over 20ppt, while META may struggle to add even 10ppt, with more issuance likely in 2028.

**Dolphin view: Reactions to the $95bn equity plan are mixed, with some calling it too much and others too little, essentially reflecting differing expectations for Muse. We noted yesterday that $95bn should backstop the next two years’ funding gap, in theory.** **If Muse explodes (say 500mn DAU+), it would crowd out cloud compute leasing supply, and META’s two-year compute deployment plan would be insufficient. That implies the $250bn capex guide next year could move higher.** ([*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44545011))

**MSFT** | $3.96tn | **+1.5%**

Per Bloomberg, MSFT offered voluntary separation to ~60k employees (~one-quarter), excluding data center, sales, and security roles. In the Jul round, only a bit over 30% of ~8,750 eligible took the offer.

Street math implies 6k–12k exits, a one-time $0.5–1.0bn charge in the Dec qtr, and $1.5–3.0bn annualized savings. Oppenheimer and Truist raised targets, with Azure FQ1 growth est. around +46%.

**GOOGL -1.1% / AMZN +0.4%**

Internet lagged all day. The S-1 shows 48% of Anthropic revenue via cloud marketplaces, making AWS and GCP direct beneficiaries.

GOOGL reports 10/28, AMZN on 10/29.

**CRWV +1.8% / NBIS -3.4% / IREN +2.1%**

**LITE** | $74.0bn | **+8.2%**

Reports on 11/5, with markets focused on EML and high-power CW laser expansion cadence.

**NOK +6.1% / TSEM +6.7% / AAOI +6.6% / COHR +5.8% / CIEN +4.9% / GLW +3.3%**

GLW reports before the open today.

**VZ** | **-3.5%**

Results: postpaid phone net adds of 406k, about 2x Street, with full-year phone net add guidance raised to 1.1–1.2mn from 0.75–1.0mn. It also signed an AWS AI deal worth over $2bn.

However, revenue of $34.31bn missed the ~$34.85bn consensus. The company said MVNO via satellite partners offers 'no benefit', addressing concerns from SPCX’s talks to deploy 80k base stations and act as a fourth operator.

**SK Hynix SKHY (US ADR)** | **+4.1%**

Media report SK Hynix plans to announce an extra KRW 50–60tn shareholder return with its 10/28 Q3 print. About KRW 16tn (~$12bn) special dividend would come from Kioxia investment gains, with a focus on special dividends.

The Seoul stock is still ~56% below its high. Two US leveraged ETFs linked to its ADR will be liquidated and delisted in mid-Nov.

**MU** | $1.02tn | **+3.0% / STX +2.2% / WDC +3.6% / SNDK +1.4%**

Musk said 'robots will demand more memory than everything else combined'. WDC held gains after last week’s beat-and-raise. STX reports after the close tonight.

**NVDA** | $5.22tn | **+2.4%**

Barclays estimates NVDA’s real off-balance-sheet commitments tied to customers are about $250bn, not the ~$500bn cited in media partnerships. NVDA’s support cap is ~25%, and much is in residual value guarantees.

**AVGO** | $1.57tn | **+2.3%:** Bloomberg reports AVGO arranged a ~$63bn SPV to help Anthropic procure chips.

**TSM** | $2.20tn | **+1.4%:** Industrial and Commercial Times says CoWoS pricing could rise up to another 20%.

**INTC +4.0% / ARM +6.2% / AMD +2.8%**

INTC: New Street upgraded to Buy, seeing agentic AI driving sustained server CPU demand, with server capacity up 50%+ by 2027. Bloomberg also reports INTC plans to acquire quantum firm Classiq, with ~130 staff and $200mn+ raised.

ARM: rebounded after a 7% drop Fri. Wells Fargo said management is more confident in $2bn+ AGI CPU backlog (prior framework $1bn+), while StoneX said foundry capacity could cap FY28 CPU revenue around $8bn.

**TSLA** | $1.55tn | **+5.2%**

Barclays raised to Overweight, arguing upside no longer hinges solely on an SPCX merger. Core auto is improving after two years of decline, Robotaxi ramps, and storage capacity is nearly sold out for 2027. FSD take-rate topped 75% for new cars in North America in Q3.

**Dolphin view: Barclays highlights four positives from the print, but further multiple expansion depends on AI story execution (Optimus, FSD approvals in Europe’s Big Four, and consumer AVs). These are post-2027.** ([*Earnings take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44476558))

**SPCX** | $2.00tn | **-0.4%**

Bernstein raised its target, modeling land-based compute at ~12.8GW by end-2027 and ~20.1GW by end-2028. The Avg. 2027 compute price is about $26/W.

**Dolphin view: To add 10GW in 2027, we estimate roughly 40% of NVDA’s chip output would need to go to SpaceX. Even if SpaceX has the cash to build, how much NVDA is willing to allocate remains a question.** ([*Earnings take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44451710))

**AAPL** | $5.02tn | **-1.1%**

iPhone Duo screen-crack reports kept spreading. AAPL admitted a small number of units are affected and advised replacements, while iFixit pointed to hinge component damage.

Bear counterpoints: Taiwan media report Duo sell-outs on debut and a 30% order add. JP Morgan says Duo lead times are about 94 days; earnings on 11/2.

**BE +5.5% / GEV +4.9% / VRT +2.8%**

Oversold bounces after last week’s prints. GEV and VRT report before the open Wed.

**Date**

**Event**

**Watch**

Tue 10/27

GLW, CLS Q3 (pre); STX, NXPI Q3 (post); US Sep new home sales

STX preview below; fiber and server demand

**Wed 10/28**

**SK Hynix Q3 (Beijing morning); GEV, VRT, APH, TER (pre); MSFT, GOOGL, NOW, FTNT (post); ORCL Analyst Day**

**See previews below; ORCL financing plans**

**Thu 10/29**

**FOMC decision (02:00 Beijing); Sep PCE; AMZN, INTC, SNDK, RDDT (post)**

**\~91% odds of no change; see previews below**

**Mid next week**

**Anthropic updates S-1 with Oct ARR**

**\> $78bn would put $100bn in Dec back on the table**

Week of 11/16

Anthropic IPO (ticker ANT)

Valuation range $1.5–2.0tn

**STX | post on 10/27**

**Watch**: after WDC’s beat-and-raise selloff last week, the market asks 'when does the shortage end'. STX needs to prove HAMR ramp and discipline on not adding spindles can support 2027 pricing.

**Dolphin focus**: HAMR shipment progress, $/TB, nearline capacity growth (~25%/yr), and capex as % of revenue (4%–6%). ([*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44544204))

**MSFT | post on 10/28**

**Watch**: with new-cloud financing tighter, markets want proof MSFT’s internal cash can cover capex and that Anthropic/OpenAI marketplace revenue lands in Azure. The 60k buyout is a new margin variable.

**Dolphin focus**: Azure growth (buyside ~46%–47%), FY27 capex, OpenAI share of RPO, and one-time charges for separations.

**GOOGL | post on 10/28**

**Watch**: third-party signals of ad slowdown vs. cloud and external TPU. The S-1 confirms Anthropic as a major GCP client, and the 2027 capex guide will be used to test whether compute is overbuilt.

**Dolphin focus**: Search and YouTube ad growth, Cloud growth and backlog, and 2027 capex.

**AMZN | post on 10/29**

**Watch**: AMZN is down 12%+ from its Aug high, and desks prefer setting up long into the print. The CEO said compute is largely sold out in 2026–2027, and markets want to see if that converts into AWS acceleration.

**Dolphin focus**: AWS growth and margin, Trainium deliveries, and full-year capex (last raised to $220bn). ([*Call notes*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/43096142))

**Recent Daily Recaps**

2026-10-26: [Dolphin Daily | Musk says '200 new clouds will die' — when does AI compute move from shortage to slack](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44535452)

2026-10-23: [Dolphin Daily | Risk Off — AI infra broadly liquidated](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44507492)

\<End here>

Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**