---
title: "CMSI Chops POP MART Earnings Forecast by 28% on Domestic Drag and Cliff-like Overseas Decline; Rating Sell Reiterated"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/303496755.md"
description: "China Merchants Securities International downgraded POP MART's earnings forecast by 28% and maintained a 'Sell' rating. The firm cited severe revenue declines in Q3 2026, with China sales dropping 25-30% and overseas markets plummeting 50-75%. Long-term IP diversification efforts are expected to be insufficient to offset near-term weakness. Consequently, the target price was reduced from HKD121 to HKD113."
datetime: "2026-10-29T04:55:10.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303496755.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303496755.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303496755.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# CMSI Chops POP MART Earnings Forecast by 28% on Domestic Drag and Cliff-like Overseas Decline; Rating Sell Reiterated

China Merchants Securities International published a research report covering POP MART (09992.HK) -1.100 (-0.842%) Short selling $249.88M; Ratio 37.164% , which announced that overall revenue for 3Q26 fell 45-50% YoY, missing market expectations and only meeting the expectations of the most pessimistic investors. The contraction was severe and broad-based: China sales declined 25-30% YoY, with online sales down 45-50% YoY; the overseas cliff-like decline deepened, with sales in the Americas sliding 70-75% YoY, Asia-Pacific down 65-70% YoY, and Europe down 50-55% YoY.

Long-term initiatives mentioned by management, such as diversification of the IP ecosystem, will struggle to offset near-term weakness in a timely manner. The broker lowered its average sales forecasts for 2026-28 by 22%, axed net profit forecasts by about 28%, and reduced gross margin forecasts by an average of 1.4 ppts. The TP was cut from HKD121 to HKD113, with a Sell rating maintained.  
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-10-29 12:25.)

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**