---
title: "Will the Fed Hike Rates in December? Here’s What the Prediction Market Is Saying"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/303707702.md"
description: "The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% with two dissenters favoring a hike, keeping December rate increase hopes alive. Markets price a 71.4% chance of a quarter-point rise in December via CME FedWatch. Prediction market Kalshi shows similar 71% odds for a 25 bps hike. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh proposed reducing meeting frequency to two strategy and six policy sessions by 2028."
datetime: "2026-10-30T07:56:12.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303707702.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303707702.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303707702.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Will the Fed Hike Rates in December? Here’s What the Prediction Market Is Saying

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, in line with market expectations.

The vote was 10-2, with Fed Governor **Lisa Cook** and Cleveland Fed President **Beth Hammack** in favor of a quarter-point hike.

## **What’s Expected From The Next Fed Meet?**

The two dissenting votes have kept hopes of monetary tightening in December alive. The FOMC said that "the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal."

CME Group’s FedWatch tool’s projections show market pricing in a 71.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve increasing the rate to 4%-4.25% during December’s meeting.

The Fed had raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing its benchmark range to 3.75%–4%.

Trump had earlier demanded interest rates of 1% or lower, criticizing the September hike.

## **Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying**

The prediction market is now betting on whether the Fed will hike rates in December.

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $3 million has been bet on the contract "Fed decision in December?"

Bettors have placed a 71% probability on a "25 bps increase" and a 28% probability that there will be no change in the interest rates.

***Disclaimer:*** *Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.*

**Kevin Warsh Plans Fewer Rate Decisions From 2028**

Federal Reserve Chair **Kevin Warsh** unveiled a plan on Wednesday to overhaul how the central bank meets. He said he expects two strategy meetings and six policy-setting meetings in 2028.

The Fed needs "time and space" for "thinking anew about big questions," Warsh said.

***Disclaimer:*** *This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.*

*Photo courtesy: Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock.com*

### Related Stocks

- [CME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CME.US.md)

## Related News & Research

- [Uniswap’s retail demand returns after 2 weeks of losses: Can UNI defend $6.80?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/301735342.md)
- [CME Group 3Q Profit, Revenue Rise on Higher Derivatives Volume](https://longbridge.com/en/news/302560024.md)
- [CoreWeave Q3 Preview: Stock Down 73% From Highs, Market Expert Says Company ‘Faces Two Big Tests’](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304893921.md)
- [‘The Worst May Not Be Over,’ Says Investor About Rocket Lab Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304905914.md)
- [House Democratic leader says lawmakers needs answers on Nvidia, wants China chip restrictions](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304905260.md)

---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**