--- title: "Earnings Preview | Palantir reports Monday after the close — US commercial growth and the full-year guide are the test" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/303937590.md" description: "Consensus puts revenue at $2.18 billion, up about 85% and already above the top of guidance. The reaction hinges on US commercial growth holding near 140% and on how far the full-year outlook is raised." datetime: "2026-11-02T10:04:53.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303937590.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303937590.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303937590.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Earnings Preview | Palantir reports Monday after the close — US commercial growth and the full-year guide are the test ## The Estimates Consensus revenue sits at $2.18 billion, up about 85% year on year from $1.181 billion. Palantir (PLTR.US) reports fiscal Q3 2026 after the US close on Monday, 2 November. EPS is seen at $0.38, or $0.41 adjusted, versus $0.18. Gross margin should reach 86.1%, up from 84.7% last quarter. Palantir's Q3 revenue guidance tops out at $2.164 billion, and adjusted operating income is guided to $1.292–1.296 billion. Consensus has cleared that ceiling already and margins sit inside the range, so a small beat is priced in. ## Track Record Growth has accelerated for six straight quarters. Revenue rose 39.3%, 48.0%, 62.8% and 70.0% across 2025, then 84.7% and 92.8% in 2026's first two quarters. Last quarter brought $1.935 billion, up 18.6% sequentially, and net margin climbed from 24.2% in Q1 2025 to 54.9%. The 85% expected now is below last quarter's 93% because the year-ago base was only $1.181 billion. Sequentially, consensus implies about 12.7%, close to the 11.7% needed to reach guidance. ## What to Watch US commercial revenue is the hardest number to clear. The unit booked $764 million last quarter, up 149% year on year, the most direct read on commercialisation. Holding near 140% on a higher base is the test, TradingKey said in its 2 November preview. August's raise put full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $8.15–8.158 billion and US commercial growth at 134% or more; Citi's 2 November note sees roughly 10 percentage points more upside on that rate. International commercial growth trails the US badly, Zhitong Finance noted on 2 November, and the mid-October tie-up with Knox Systems to speed federal cloud deployment is unproven. RBC Capital counted dividend, buyback and split questions at 46% of pre-earnings investor queries, 30 points above last quarter. Net cash stood at about $9.2 billion. ## Analyst Ratings Targets span $90 to $265, so the split is about valuation, not demand. JPMorgan began coverage at overweight on 29 October, set a December 2027 target of $262 and put the stock on its positive catalyst watch list. Barclays opened at overweight on 9 October at $265. Citi held buy on 2 November and lifted its target to $250 from $245; Goldman Sachs went to buy from neutral on 8 October at $230. Against the 30 October close of $184.11, JPMorgan's target sits about 42% higher and Barclays' about 44%. Morgan Stanley is equal-weight at $205 and RBC Capital underperform at $90. ## In Short The bar is a beat, not a meet. Consensus revenue already sits above the top of guidance, and the 85% growth rate and 60% operating margin are in the price. Three things decide the reaction: how far the full-year guide is raised, whether US commercial growth holds above 140% on a tougher base, and what is done with the net cash. Large-cap tech has sold off as a group after reporting since October, and Jefferies puts the average move the day after results at -3%. Tolerance for a near-miss is thin this season. ### Related Stocks - [PLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTR.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Dan Ives Says Palantir Is Answering AI's Biggest Question: Where's the Money?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304125979.md) - [Palantir Set to Report Earnings as Alex Karp Says Business Is ‘Compounding’ Like Never Before: Polymarket Bets on a Beat](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303924240.md) - [Palantir Q3 revenue jumps 96%, beats analyst expectations](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304009150.md) - [U.S. RESEARCH ROUNDUP-Bright Minds Biosciences, Marvell Technology, Oracle Corporation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304072337.md) - [IonQ Stock Earnings Preview: What to Expect After Its Record Second Quarter](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304113732.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**