--- title: "Palantir Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Alex Karp Say?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/303962988.md" description: "Palantir (PLTR) reports Q3 earnings Monday, with analysts expecting $0.41 EPS on $2.18B revenue. Prediction markets highlight likely mentions of 'Maven', 'Sovereign AI', and 'Nvidia'. Valuation concerns persist; JPMorgan sets a $262 target while RBC maintains $90 against Friday's close of $184.11. Despite strong cash flow, the stock trades at ~53x expected 2026 revenue, leaving little room for disappointment." datetime: "2026-11-02T13:08:09.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303962988.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303962988.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/303962988.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Palantir Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Alex Karp Say? **Palantir Technologies Inc.** (NASDAQ:PLTR) fell sharply Friday, as investors weigh whether its AI growth can justify its valuation ahead of Monday’s third-quarter earnings. Analysts expect earnings of 41 cents per share on $2.18 billion in revenue, up 84% year over year. Earnings Whispers puts the unofficial hurdle at 49 cents. On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words CEO **Alex Karp** and his team will say during the 5 p.m. ET call. ### What Kalshi Predicts Palantir Will Say “International” and “Maven” lead at 98% each. CFO **David Glazer** routinely breaks out overseas commercial and government revenue. International business supplied about 19% of sales last quarter, while international commercial revenue grew 26%, versus 149% for U.S. commercial. The Pentagon is making Maven a core military intelligence program. “TITAN” sits at 58% after the Army awarded Palantir $127 million for battlefield targeting systems. “Revenue Guidance” trades at 87%. Palantir raised its 2026 sales forecast by $500 million to $8.15 billion in August, implying 82% annual growth. Investors are looking for another increase. “Sovereign AI” stands at 86%. After going unmentioned on seven consecutive calls, the phrase appeared eight times in August as Palantir pushed customers to control their AI models and data. “Nvidia” trades at 61%. **Nvidia** (NASDAQ:NVDA) supplies AI chips and models used with Palantir’s software, while also deploying that software to manage its own supply chain. The companies are jointly marketing the technology to other businesses. ### What Kalshi Predicts Palantir Will Skip “Nebius” is nearly a coin flip at 49%, despite **Nebius Group N.V.** (NASDAQ:NBIS) becoming Palantir’s preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. “Slop” trades at 42%. Executives used the term 17 times in May to attack AI output with little business value, but only once in August. “Warp Speed” sits at 37%. The manufacturing software was mentioned on seven consecutive earnings calls before disappearing in August. “Commercial Growth” trades at 31%. Executives discussed U.S. commercial revenue growth in August without saying those exact words. “Anthropic / Claude” stands at 11%. Asked in August about AI models being pulled, after the Pentagon ordered Claude’s removal from Maven, Karp answered without naming Anthropic. ### The Valuation Debate JPMorgan analyst **Brian Essex** sees a business already delivering returns on AI investment, setting a $262 price target. RBC analyst **Rishi Jaluria** is far less optimistic, maintaining a $90 target on valuation concerns. Against Friday’s closing price of $184.11, those targets imply roughly 42% upside or 51% downside. Unlike AI data-center builders facing mounting financing problems, Palantir is already generating substantial cash. It produced $1.22 billion in adjusted free cash flow last quarter. At Friday’s close, investors valued Palantir at roughly 53 times its expected 2026 revenue, leaving little room for disappointment. *Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.* *Image: Shutterstock* **Read Also: Paul Kedrosky Says AI Bubble May Be Hiding in Private Markets as Anthropic IPO Nears** ### Related Stocks - [PLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTR.US.md) - [PLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLA.US.md) - [PLIB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLIB.US.md) - [PLOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLOO.US.md) - [PLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLT.US.md) - [PLTA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTA.US.md) - [PLTD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTD.US.md) - [PLTG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTG.US.md) - [PLTL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTL.US.md) - [PLTU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTU.US.md) - [PLTW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTW.US.md) - [PLTY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTY.US.md) - [PLTZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTZ.US.md) - [PLYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLYY.US.md) - [PTIR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PTIR.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [NBIS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NBIS.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [BUZZ-PREVIEW: Palantir steady ahead of results, AI-powered demand eyed](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303997291.md) - [Palantir Set to Report Earnings as Alex Karp Says Business Is ‘Compounding’ Like Never Before: Polymarket Bets on a Beat](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303924240.md) - [Palantir’s Q3 report to test stock defensiveness amid AI panic — what analysts are expecting](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303911627.md) - [Palantir Technologies (PLTR) to report earnings tomorrow: here is what to expect](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303844747.md) - [3,353 Shares in Palantir Technologies Inc. $PLTR Acquired by Left Brain Wealth Management LLC](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303829208.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**