---
title: "Prediction Markets: Iran Ceasefire Cools, Bitcoin $80K Eases | Nov 3"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/304093079.md"
description: "Pakistan's military-action probability fell to 42% on $53K of 24h volume; Anthropic's pricing for the largest 2026 IPO slipped to 28%; Republican Brad Knott's win probability in North Carolina's 13th District rose to 66%."
datetime: "2026-11-03T10:01:28.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/304093079.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304093079.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/304093079.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Prediction Markets: Iran Ceasefire Cools, Bitcoin $80K Eases | Nov 3

On Polymarket, the "US-Iran ceasefire holds through November 2" contract is priced at 79%, down 19 percentage points over the past 24 hours, on $1.2M of 24h volume. The contract settles on November 3; a week ago the reading was about 79% and 24 hours ago about 98%, and it has now fallen back to 79%. The Associated Press reported on November 3, citing officials, that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is urging the Trump administration to carry out a new round of strikes on Iran, which coincided with the weakening in the ceasefire-extension probability over the past day.

## Market Implication

Whether the US-Iran ceasefire holds bears on Middle East energy supply and on overall risk appetite: a lower probability reading means pricing of a de-escalation in the region has loosened, and both uncertainty over energy supply and swings in risk appetite flow into the macro pricing environment, forming a trackable macro thread for the valuation backdrop of stocks and ETFs. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.)

## Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

**Largest 2026 IPO**: on Polymarket, the "largest IPO by market cap in 2026" contract prices Anthropic at 28%, down 14.7 percentage points over 24 hours, on $55K of 24h volume, down from about 39% a week ago; the contract settles on January 2, 2027.

**Pakistan military action against Afghanistan**: on Polymarket, the contract on Pakistan taking military action against Afghanistan before November 30 is priced at 42%, down 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours, on $53K of 24h volume; it also read about 42% a week ago, a zero 7-day change.

**North Carolina's 13th District**: on Polymarket, the probability that Republican Brad Knott wins the House seat is 66%, up 11 percentage points over 24 hours, on $77K of 24h volume; the contract settles on November 4.

**Bitcoin November price**: on Polymarket, the contract on bitcoin touching $80,000 within November is priced at 70%, down 11 percentage points over 24 hours, on $70K of 24h volume; it read about 70% a week ago and about 81% 24 hours ago, back at 70% now, a zero 7-day change.

*Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.*

*Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.*

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**