I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.The Estimates
Consensus is $7.28 billion of revenue, up about 2.9% year on year, and EPS of $3.41 GAAP, $3.38 adjusted, roughly 6% higher. McDonald's (MCD.US) reports fiscal 2026 third-quarter results before the US market opens on Wednesday, 4 November. Same-store sales sit lower: Bloomberg-compiled forecasts point to 1.4% global growth, from 3.6% a year earlier, and a 0.5% US decline (Yahoo Finance, 3 November). Sales still rise as traffic falls, so the bar was never high.
Track Record
The acceleration is over. Six-quarter revenue growth ranged from -3.5% to 9.7% year on year, then slowed to 3.7% from 9.4%. EPS followed: $3.32 in the second quarter, up 5.7%, against 6.9% in the first. Margins neither cracked nor expanded: gross margin 58.0% versus 57.9%, operating margin 46.5%, more than a point lower, and operating profit up 1.2%. US revenue grew 5.0% and international operated markets 5.8%, together over 90% of the total.
What to Watch
The US same-store sales print decides the quarter. Last quarter's 0.8% was the weakest since early 2025 (Zhitong Finance, 29 October), and Placer.ai shows visits falling. In September the company warned of roughly flat major-market traffic while inflation stays high (Reuters, 3 November). A reading below -0.5% forces the Street to rework 2027.
Value meals are the next test. US restaurants are trialling a $3.50 to $4 pick-two deal, confirmed in late October, after a "10 items under $3" offer flopped — a miss the CEO conceded in August (Zhitong Finance, 29 October). Burger King's $5 two-item deal lifted its US same-store sales to 8.4%. Only 60% to 65% of franchisees took value menus last quarter, so new US head Skye Anderson faces questions on execution.
Holidays are the third. A Pokémon 30th anniversary Happy Meal launches on 10 November, carrying 15 cards and 15 keychains and the first physical toys since 2018, running to 14 December (Benzinga, 3 November). That revenue lands in the fourth quarter, yet management's words on it shape full-year models.
Analyst Ratings
The sell side is split. Reuters, citing LSEG, counts 37 analysts, an average buy rating and a $295 median target as of 3 November. Most big banks cut targets last month: Bernstein to $250 from $295 (neutral), Citi to $295 from $305 on 20 October (buy), Mizuho to $260 from $290 on 30 October. UBS reiterated buy at $320 on 19 October, seeing US same-store sales down nearly 1% before a 2027 recovery, some 20% above the $263.04 close on 3 November. Melius rates it sell at $230, below the market price.
In Short
At $263.04 it trades near 21x trailing earnings, on $12.3 of EPS over four quarters. The stock is down about 14% this year and 23% below February's high. Options price a 4.3% move around the print (Benzinga, 2 November). Repricing hinges on the US same-store sales read and the 2027 framing, not this quarter's EPS.