---
title: "Earnings Preview | McDonald's reports before Wednesday's US open — US same-store sales are the first test"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/304178610.md"
description: "Consensus sits at $7.28 billion of revenue and $3.41 in EPS, about 6% higher year on year. The quarter turns on US same-store sales, forecast at -0.5%, and on how far value meals have reached franchisees."
datetime: "2026-11-03T23:07:08.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/304178610.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304178610.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/304178610.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Earnings Preview | McDonald's reports before Wednesday's US open — US same-store sales are the first test

## The Estimates

Consensus is $7.28 billion of revenue, up about 2.9% year on year, and EPS of $3.41 GAAP, $3.38 adjusted, roughly 6% higher. McDonald's (MCD.US) reports fiscal 2026 third-quarter results before the US market opens on Wednesday, 4 November. Same-store sales sit lower: Bloomberg-compiled forecasts point to 1.4% global growth, from 3.6% a year earlier, and a 0.5% US decline (Yahoo Finance, 3 November). Sales still rise as traffic falls, so the bar was never high.

## Track Record

The acceleration is over. Six-quarter revenue growth ranged from -3.5% to 9.7% year on year, then slowed to 3.7% from 9.4%. EPS followed: $3.32 in the second quarter, up 5.7%, against 6.9% in the first. Margins neither cracked nor expanded: gross margin 58.0% versus 57.9%, operating margin 46.5%, more than a point lower, and operating profit up 1.2%. US revenue grew 5.0% and international operated markets 5.8%, together over 90% of the total.

## What to Watch

The US same-store sales print decides the quarter. Last quarter's 0.8% was the weakest since early 2025 (Zhitong Finance, 29 October), and Placer.ai shows visits falling. In September the company warned of roughly flat major-market traffic while inflation stays high (Reuters, 3 November). A reading below -0.5% forces the Street to rework 2027.

Value meals are the next test. US restaurants are trialling a $3.50 to $4 pick-two deal, confirmed in late October, after a "10 items under $3" offer flopped — a miss the CEO conceded in August (Zhitong Finance, 29 October). Burger King's $5 two-item deal lifted its US same-store sales to 8.4%. Only 60% to 65% of franchisees took value menus last quarter, so new US head Skye Anderson faces questions on execution.

Holidays are the third. A Pokémon 30th anniversary Happy Meal launches on 10 November, carrying 15 cards and 15 keychains and the first physical toys since 2018, running to 14 December (Benzinga, 3 November). That revenue lands in the fourth quarter, yet management's words on it shape full-year models.

## Analyst Ratings

The sell side is split. Reuters, citing LSEG, counts 37 analysts, an average buy rating and a $295 median target as of 3 November. Most big banks cut targets last month: Bernstein to $250 from $295 (neutral), Citi to $295 from $305 on 20 October (buy), Mizuho to $260 from $290 on 30 October. UBS reiterated buy at $320 on 19 October, seeing US same-store sales down nearly 1% before a 2027 recovery, some 20% above the $263.04 close on 3 November. Melius rates it sell at $230, below the market price.

## In Short

At $263.04 it trades near 21x trailing earnings, on $12.3 of EPS over four quarters. The stock is down about 14% this year and 23% below February's high. Options price a 4.3% move around the print (Benzinga, 2 November). Repricing hinges on the US same-store sales read and the 2027 framing, not this quarter's EPS.

### Related Stocks

- [MCD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MCD.US.md)

## Related News & Research

- [McDonald's Q3 diluted EPS rises 10% to $3.51](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304271324.md)
- [McDonald's US sales decline for first time in six quarters despite value push](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304270208.md)
- [McDonald's tests new value menu as fast-food discount wars heat up](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304330371.md)
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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**