--- title: "'Worst Possible Combination:' Top Analyst Warns of Trump White House With Democratic Congress — Here's What the S&P 500 Has Historically Averaged" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/304233072.md" description: "Top analyst Ryan Detrick warns that a Republican President with a Democratic Congress is historically the worst political scenario for the S&P 500, averaging only 4.9% annual returns. Conversely, a split Congress yields the highest average return at 15.1%. This data suggests markets may be pricing in lower gains if such a political gridlock occurs." datetime: "2026-11-04T07:18:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/304233072.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304233072.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/304233072.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # 'Worst Possible Combination:' Top Analyst Warns of Trump White House With Democratic Congress — Here's What the S&P 500 Has Historically Averaged Historical market data shows a divided congressional government produces the highest average returns for the S&P 500. At the same time, a Republican president paired with a Democratic Congress results in the lowest historical market gains. ## **The ‘Worst Possible Combination’** When factoring in the political affiliation of the sitting president, the dynamic shifts significantly. According to **Ryan Detrick**‘s historical data, “The worst possible combination is a Republican President and a Democratic Congress.” This specific political makeup—a scenario that would apply to **Donald Trump** assuming the presidency alongside a Democratic-majority Congress—historically yields an average annual S&P 500 return of just 4.9%. Detrick observed that markets were actively pricing in this data, adding, “Futures seem to agree so far.” Responding to a question about whether this 4.9% figure was primarily driven by the Global Financial Crisis, Detrick stated, “It is the most likely scenario at 22 times. So it is somewhat, but some other bad years in there for sure.” > The worst possible combination is a Republican President and a Democratic Congress. Futures seem to agree so far. pic.twitter.com/W0UwasOIj3 > > — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 4, 2026 **Read Also: Tom Lee Says 'We Are at the Bottom' as Tech Sell-Off Rocks Markets — But He Still Sees S&P 500 Above 8,200 By Year-End** ## **The ‘Best Scenario’ for Stocks** A split Congress yields an average S&P 500 annual return of 15.1%, based on historical data spanning 1951 to 2025. Sharing the data on X, Detrick, stated, “Good reminder that the best scenario for stocks is a split Congress.” When looking strictly at congressional makeup without factoring in the executive branch, Detrick noted that “A Democrat controlled Congress is the worst scenario historically,” as that setup averages a 6.7% return compared to 11.3% for a Republican-controlled Congress. > Good reminder that the best scenario for stocks is a split Congress. > > A Democrat controlled Congress is the worst scenario historically. pic.twitter.com/7SVnfKCV0B > > — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 3, 2026 ## **Historical Market Context** The data, sourced from Carson Investment Research and FactSet, tracks market performance starting with the 82nd Congress. Under a Republican president with a Republican Congress, the index averages a 7.6% return, while a Republican president with a split Congress averages 13.7%. Conversely, a Democratic president paired with a split Congress yields the highest specific combination return at 17.0%, while a Democratic president with a Republican Congress averages 16.3%. A Democratic president paired with a Democratic Congress averages an 8.6% return. ## **How Has the Stock Market Performed?** The S&P 500 index has advanced 10.36% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 9.19%, and the Dow Jones gained 7.04% YTD. On Tuesday, the **SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust** (NYSE:SPY) and **Invesco QQQ Trust ETF** (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY rose 0.30% to $754.35, while QQQ advanced 0.62% to $685.28. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, **State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust** (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.44% lower at $517.06. **Read Also: Apple’s Siri AI Could Become a Paid Upgrade — CEO John Ternus Reveals Plans to Charge for More Server-Side Apple Intelligence Usage** ***Disclaimer:*** *This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.* *Photo courtesy: Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [SPDN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPDN.US.md) - [SPLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPLG.US.md) - [SPUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPUU.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304097534.md) - [Kiwoom Securities offers KRW 26.61 billion in equity-linked bonds](https://longbridge.com/en/news/303479075.md) - [SPY Vs. 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