I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.The Estimates
Consensus sees MercadoLibre (MELI.US) posting revenue of $10.715 billion for Q3 2026, up about 44.6% year on year, and EPS of $9.27, up 11.6%. Results land after the US close on Wednesday, 4 November. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) is forecast at $728 million, flat against $724 million a year earlier, implying an operating margin near 6.8% versus 9.8%. EPS estimates span $7.57 to $9.87, with the top end about 30% above the bottom. That spread is where the disagreement over spending pace sits.
Track Record
Revenue is accelerating; profit is not. Year-on-year revenue growth ran +37.0%, +33.8%, +39.5% and +44.6% through 2025, then +49.0% and +49.8% in the first two quarters of 2026. Q2 revenue of $10.169 billion was the first quarter above $10 billion. Net profit went the other way: -12.5% in Q4 2025, -15.6% in Q1 2026 and -10.9% in Q2, three straight declines. Net margin dropped from 8.3% in Q1 2025 to 4.6% in Q2 2026, and gross margin from 46.7% to 40.9% over the same stretch. Faster growth alongside thinner margins is the contradiction this report has to settle.
What to Watch
Brazil is the first variable. Lula won the 25 October runoff 51.8% to 48.2%, and Brazilian equities, the currency and rates all repriced the next day; the stock opened as much as 12.7% lower (TradingKey, 26 October). Brazil was about 52.6% of 2025 net revenue, so a weaker real dents dollar-reported numbers while local spending and credit demand set the volume. Next, whether operating margin stops falling. It was already 6.7% in Q2, and consensus assumes flat EBIT year on year, so no repair is priced in. Spending intensity on the free-shipping threshold, fast fulfilment and the credit card build-out is the swing factor. Then credit quality. Receivables hit $20.18 billion at the end of Q2, or 39.3% of total assets. The balance sheet has swung from $312 million of net cash at the end of Q1 2025 to $7.46 billion of net debt. Last, monetisation, where analysts point to the Mercado Ads partnership with Netflix and prescription drug sales, live in Brazil since September.
Analyst Ratings
Wall Street leans positive; the argument is over how much recovery is priced. MarketBeat's late-October tally has 13 buy ratings against 5 neutral and a consensus target of $2,248.75. Individual calls matter more. Jefferies kept buy and a $2,600 target in mid-October, about 55% above the current $1,662.16. Goldman Sachs reiterated buy at $2,300 in mid-September. Citi upgraded from neutral to buy in late October and lifted its target to $2,050 on better risk-reward and advertising headroom. UBS cut its target to $1,750 in early September, roughly level with the market price. The split comes down to when margins recover and how Brazilian macro risk gets priced.
In Short
Trailing four-quarter EPS sums to about $36.75, so the stock trades near 45x P/E. That multiple assumes profit returns to growth, yet consensus offers only 11.6% EPS growth and flat EBIT this quarter. Revenue running ahead while profit makes way is already the accepted story. The dividing line is whether operating margin signals a floor, and whether Brazilian credit quality holds with rates still high. The bar for a revenue beat is low. Tolerance on profit is not.