AI Sell-Off Hits Anthropic IPO, Potential Valuation Expectations Cut to $1.2–$1.3 Trillion

Anthropic PBC’s IPO plans are facing a severe test. After tech stocks suffered heavy losses and the Nasdaq 100 Index plummeted 6.4% in a single day, potential investors significantly lowered their valuation expectations for the AI company, casting doubt on both the timing of the listing and the rationality of its pricing.

According to Bloomberg on the 6th, citing a person familiar with the matter, the valuation range currently being discussed by some potential investors has dropped to $1.2–$1.3 trillion. Previously, after the company’s financial briefing in October, investors had provided underwriting banks with a valuation of $1.4–$1.5 trillion, while expectations peaked at as high as $2 trillion in early October this year. The source stated that discussions are ongoing and no final decision has been made. An Anthropic spokesperson declined to comment.

This situation sends an important signal to sentiment across the entire AI sector. On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 Index wiped out $2.3 trillion in market value in a single day, marking a record one-day decline. Meanwhile, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market volatility, rose to its highest level since April 2025, increasing pressure on investors in any large-scale IPO.

Widening Valuation Divergence, Institutions Turn Cautious

Thursday’s market crash occurred on the eve of the official roadshow, pushing down valuation expectations that were already under pressure due to controversies over fundamentals.

Stephan Kemper, Chief Investment Officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany, stated:

"Based on the revaluation of the AI sector, I expect Anthropic’s pricing may need to fall to the lower end of the rumored $1.5–$2 trillion target range, or even 10% to 15% lower."

Michael Alfaro, Chief Investment Officer at Gallo Partners, had already told Bloomberg before the market crash that Anthropic needs to set its valuation target between $1.3 trillion and $1.4 trillion "to build a high-quality order book."

David Rainville, Technology Portfolio Manager at Sycomore Asset Management, pointed out: "If they set the valuation at the lower end of the range—such as $1.2 trillion—finding investors should not be a problem."

Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC Holdings, took a more conservative stance, believing that a valuation below $1 trillion would be safer for investors. In an interview with Bloomberg Radio, he said:

"I don’t think we need headlines like 'Oh my god, this is a trillion-dollar IPO.' What matters more is performance in the secondary market. If something like the SpaceX scenario occurs—where the stock price briefly surges after secondary market buying and then plummets—that is the last thing you want to see in the current environment."

Dual Pressure from Policy Risks and Fundamental Concerns

The direct trigger for this round of AI stock sell-offs was the election results. The congressional election results brought skeptics of AI policy into the centers of power, with several states passing moratoriums that could delay data center construction, directly impacting the investment logic for AI infrastructure.

This political signal is particularly unfavorable for Anthropic. The accumulation of valuation pressure stems partly from investors’ scrutiny of the company’s financial status—Anthropic continues to report quarterly losses and has undertaken large capital commitments to partners in AI infrastructure construction.

According to Reuters, some investors are still waiting for October revenue data, which has not yet been disclosed in Anthropic’s latest amended S-1 filing, to assess whether the company’s recent growth rate has rebounded. The absence of key data makes it harder for institutional investors to make large subscription decisions in the current market environment.

Alexandre Baradez, Chief Market Analyst at IG Paris, stated:

"While this sell-off certainly poses risks to the Anthropic IPO, from another perspective, entering the market after the valuation bubble has cleared might actually be a better timing."

Discount, Scale-Down, or Delay: Three Paths Each with Costs

As noted in a previous article by Wall Street News, facing market headwinds, Anthropic and its advisors need to weigh trade-offs among several paths.

One option is to launch the official roadshow with a conservative scale and valuation, adjusting based on initial subscription responses. Chipmaker Cerebras Systems and design software company Figma both adopted this strategy, expanding their offering sizes after bankers assessed rising demand—but both companies are currently trading below their issue prices.

Another option is to delay the listing. Regulations require companies to wait at least 15 calendar days after making IPO documents public before starting the official roadshow, but some companies wait weeks or even months after public filing to update quarterly financial data. While delaying can avoid recent market volatility, it may also exacerbate external doubts about the overall health of the AI ecosystem, especially against the backdrop of clear political signals restricting data center construction.

Rick Meckler, Partner at Cherry Lane Investments, holds reserved optimism about the long-term prospects, believing that "these companies will ultimately become part of the future, and investor interest remains." However, whether optimistic expectations can support Anthropic in completing its listing at the desired price remains to be seen under current market conditions.