Why Rocket Lab Stock Is Falling After Hours as Take-Two Surges — and What Wall Street Sees Next

Space exploration may be exciting, but investors seem more interested in video games Monday evening. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is dropping about 4% after its latest earnings revealed a larger-than-expected loss, while Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) is climbing 4% as record-breaking preorders for Grand Theft Auto VI and the company's reaffirmed annual outlook overshadow disappointing quarterly bookings.

While investors are celebrating Take-Two and giving Rocket Lab the cold shoulder, Wall Street's analysts seem to be playing by the same rules. Both Rocket Lab and Take-Two carry Strong Buy consensus ratings, with expectations for solid gains ahead.

Starting with Rocket Lab, the space company delivered impressive revenue growth in the third quarter, but its bottom line gave investors something to worry about. Revenue jumped 72.7% year-over-year to $267.8 million, beating Wall Street's expectations by $10.62 million. However, the company reported a GAAP loss of $0.12 per share, missing analysts' estimates by $0.05.

There were some encouraging developments beyond the earnings miss. Rocket Lab's order backlog climbed 52% from the previous quarter to a record $3.6 billion, while GAAP operating cash flow turned positive at $7.2 million.

Looking ahead, Rocket Lab expects fourth-quarter revenue between $270 million and $290 million, comfortably above Wall Street's $265.42 million forecast. However, the company still anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of $14 million to $20 million.

For now, the biggest development remains its Neutron rocket, whose inaugural launch has been pushed into 2027. The delay has raised concerns about execution and the company's ability to compete in the market for larger satellite launches, particularly as investors await evidence that its investments will translate into sustainable returns.

Still, commercial interest appears encouraging. Rocket Lab secured Neutron launch contracts worth more than $515 million during the third quarter, bringing the rocket's backlog to 16 missions and demonstrating customer demand even before the vehicle's first flight. Across its launch portfolio, new agreements helped lift the company's contracted launch backlog to a record 117 missions.

Rocket Lab's stock may have stumbled, but analysts aren't calling off the mission. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, with 15 Buys and 3 Holds. More importantly, analysts see RKLB reaching an average of $99.19 over the next 12 months, suggesting potential gains of 68.5% from Monday's closing price. (See RKLB stock forecast)

Turning to Take-Two, the video game publisher reported fiscal second-quarter net bookings of $1.60 billion, representing an 18% decline and narrowly missing analysts' $1.66 billion forecast. Recurrent consumer spending also fell 9%, although it still accounted for 81% of total bookings.

Nevertheless, investors appear encouraged by the company's updated outlook for fiscal 2027, which calls for revenue between $7.98 billion and $8.18 billion, up from its previous forecast of $7.90 billion to $8.10 billion. Take-Two also reaffirmed its annual net bookings guidance of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, while projecting earnings of $0.57 to $0.75 per share.

Take-Two is now preparing for the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI, scheduled for November 19. According to estimates from Sensor Tower, digital preorders have already reached 7.71 million copies, potentially generating more than $750 million in gross revenue, although those figures have not been confirmed by Take-Two.

CEO Strauss Zelnick expressed confidence in the approaching release, saying the company expects to deliver a historic year as preorders continue reaching unprecedented levels. For investors, the approaching launch could mark the beginning of a much larger earnings opportunity, particularly if strong initial sales translate into sustained player spending.

Overall, analysts are united behind Take-Two, with all 19 covering the stock recommending a Buy, resulting in a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $289.29 suggests potential gains of ~40% from Monday's closing price. (See TTWO stock forecast)