--- title: "Behind the Rising US Bond Yields: Traders Bet on Fed Hikes in December and January, a Blow to Trump" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/305554366.md" description: "US bond yields surged to multi-month highs following strong employment and inflation data, prompting traders to price in a high probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes in December and January. This market shift contradicts President Trump's push for rate cuts, as he argues the economy is robust enough to withstand lower rates despite rising debt and tariff-driven inflation pressures." datetime: "2026-11-14T17:30:07.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/305554366.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/305554366.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/305554366.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Behind the Rising US Bond Yields: Traders Bet on Fed Hikes in December and January, a Blow to Trump US bond yields extended their rally this week after the US published strong macro data that raised the odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes in December and January. There is also a fear that the Fed will deliver a jumbo hike, which would anger President **Donald Trump**, who has pushed the bank to cut rates. ## US Bond Yields are Rising After Strong US Macro Data The bond market has come under renewed pressure this month, with yields regaining momentum. The ten-year yield jumped to 5.16%, its highest level since October 14, and much higher than this month’s low of 4.81%. Similarly, the two-year yield jumped to 4.88%, well above this month’s low of 4.54%. The 30-year yield has soared to 5.50%. Bond prices move inversely to yields. US bond yields have continued rising after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published strong macro numbers. A report showed that the economy added over 165,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. A separate report showed that the headline and core CPI were hotter than expected last month.  US inflation has been driven by two main factors: President Trump’s tariffs and energy prices. Trump has imposed tariffs on imported goods from around the world, and he recently implemented a 50% tariff on several Canadian goods. He has also threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican goods over a migrant caravan. Energy prices have continued to rise because of the unending war in Iran that has pushed diesel costs to a record high. **Read Also: Anthropic IPO Reality Check: What Recent Listings Suggest for ANT Stock** ## Traders are Betting on Interest Rate Hikes These macro data have led investors to expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at its next meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike has jumped to 88.8%. There is also an 11.5% chance that the Fed will hike by 50 basis points, a view that strengthened after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support such a move. Most notably, there is a likely possibility that the Fed will hike interest rates in January. Odds of a 25 bps rate hike jumped to 68.1% in the CME FedWatch tool.  A decision by the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates would be a blow to President Trump, who has pushed the bank to cut them to 0%. Trump argues that the US economy is doing well and therefore deserves to pay the lowest rate. That view ignores the underlying risk of rising US debt, which has jumped to more than $40.6 trillion. An aggressive tightening of interest rates would hurt the US stock market, which is already under pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 falling by over 3% from the year-to-date high. **Read Also: Elon Musk Says He Is ‘Signing’ Petition to Reinstate Jensen Huang as Nvidia Employees Rally Behind Former CEO** *Image: Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [GOVT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEF.US.md) - [SHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SHY.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [TIP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TIP.US.md) - [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLT.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [The Gek Terna S.A. 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