The ultimate driver of long-term US Treasury yields is the US fiscal deficit. The so-called widening risk spreads and high corporate debt levels are all built on this fertile ground of US deficits.
Is there a solution?
This comes down to whether we face a soft or hard landing.
If it's a soft landing, the USD needs to depreciate and rates must come down. Right now, it's like having cancer but also suffering from food poisoning—let's handle the emergency first and deal with the chemotherapy later.






