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ASML Gains as a 110-Machine Bottleneck Defines 2028

GuruFocus
Sep 15, 2026 at 07:30 PM
LongbridgeAII'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.

ASML shares rose 0.5% as investors anticipate expanding EUV lithography machine production to over 110 units by 2028, up from 80 in 2027. This capacity ramp signals strong customer demand for next-gen chip infrastructure. The company reported Q2 sales of €9.3 billion with a 54% gross margin and raised full-year revenue guidance to €43-45 billion. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation, suggesting execution speed and investor sentiment are key risks despite robust underlying demand.

ASML Holding, the advanced semiconductor-equipment leader , gained approximately 0.5% to $1,582.91 in U.S. trading Tuesday as investors weighed the possibility of another major production ramp. Reuters reported that ASML is studying ways to manufacture more than 110 extreme-ultraviolet lithography systems in 2028 after its 2027 capacity became nearly fully committed. That is a powerful signal: customers are not merely talking about next-generation chip capacitythey are reserving the machines needed to build it.

ASML's second-quarter results showed 9.3 billion in sales and a 54% gross margin, while management lifted full-year revenue guidance to 43 billion to 45 billion. The company expects to have capacity for at least 80 EUV systems in 2027, making assembly speed the next bottleneck rather than component availability. Expanding from 80 systems to more than 110 would represent an increase of at least 37.5%, giving ASML meaningful upside if semiconductor manufacturers keep accelerating leading-edge capacity.

The valuation leaves much less room for disappointment. The picture places ASML at $1,582.91 versus a GF Value of roughly $1,260, meaning the shares trade 25.29% above that estimated fair-value level. With High-NA EUV systems carrying prices around $400 million, even a handful of extra deliveries can move revenue materiallybut at this valuation, investors are already paying heavily for that growth. Demand is clearly not the problem; execution speed and the price investors are willing to pay for ASML's dominance are now the bigger questions.

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