Top Analyst Says iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max Lead Times Have Dropped, But Apple’s Cycle Is ‘Off to a Solid Start’
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster stated that Apple's iPhone 18 Pro cycle is off to a solid start despite shorter lead times. While Pro lead times dropped 31% year-over-year, Pro Max times remained slightly longer. Munster anticipates strong demand for the upcoming iPhone Duo, expecting ~20m units versus estimates of 10m. However, component order cuts and declining lead times may limit upside for the December quarter. Apple shares closed down 1.11%.
On Friday, Gene Munster said Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is off to a solid start with its iPhone 18 Pro lineup despite shorter lead times, as the company prepares to launch its iPhone Duo.
Gene Munster Says Pro Max Demand Remains Strong
In a post on X, Deepwater Asset Management’s managing partner wrote, "Three weeks into the iPhone cycle, both the iPhone Pro and Pro Max lead times have recently dropped."
Munster added that he still believed the cycle was “off to a solid start,” with attention now turning to Duo preorders.
Three weeks into the iPhone cycle, both the iPhone Pro and Pro Max lead times have recently dropped. $AAPL
— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) October 9, 2026
I still believe the cycle is off to a solid start.
Now eyes on next Friday when Duo pre-order starts.https://t.co/d7xn2Iqx1p
iPhone 18 Pro Wait Times Fall 31%, Says Munster
The analyst also shared a blog post in which he said delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro were now 31% shorter than those for the iPhone 17 Pro at the same point last year. Meanwhile, Pro Max lead times remained 1% longer year over year.
At launch, the Pro and Pro Max had lead times 15% and 18% longer than their respective predecessors, according to Munster’s tracking across eight countries.
Early sales in China had offered an encouraging signal. Last month, Counterpoint Research reported that iPhone 18 Pro series sales grew 12% year over year in the first three days, while Apple held a 33% share of China’s smartphone market in Week 38.
However, reported component-order cuts of at least 15% for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have added another concern to the demand outlook.
Munster said the Pro’s declining lead times were concerning but expected some customers to wait for the new Duo.
“Or the standard buyers are jumping to Pro and Pro Max. Those buyers would normally be opting for the iPhone 18, but since it won’t ship until next spring, they’re deciding to buy in the fall with a higher priced model,” he wrote.
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iPhone Duo Preorders Could Offer a Clearer Signal
Preorders for the iPhone Duo open Oct. 16, with shipments set to begin Oct. 23.
“The wild card is the Duo, which I continue to believe will surprise to the upside. For the first year, I expect units of close to 20m, compared to current estimates that call for around 10m,” Munster said.
However, he cautioned that initial supply constraints could push delivery wait times to five weeks during the first month, making early demand harder to assess.
The combined iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max lead times averaged 3% longer than last year’s models over the first three weeks. Munster said the recent decline could limit expectations for additional upside in the December quarter.
Price Action: Apple shares closed Friday down 1.11% at $336.64. The stock was down 0.17% at $336.08 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro.
Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings show a positive price trend for AAPL across short-, medium- and long-term time frames.
Disclaimer: This content was produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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