CDP

Wall Street is back from its July 4 vacation, with about 4 weeks to price up to a dozen deals or so before the annual “August lull” sets in.

IPO market analysts are paying attention to 2 things right now: tariffs and the public IPO pipeline.

Let’s start with tariffs. The July 9 tariff deadline was pushed back, but investors are still skittish that the new August 1 deadline will look like “Liberation Day Part 2" in the stock market. Don’t be surprised if investors demand some extra cushion baked into IPO prices. Other IPO hopefuls will just delay listing until they get more clarity on the tariff question, or at least the market's reaction to it.

Now for the pipeline. Based on public filings, we have a good sense of which deals can price over the next month. Two mining companies are scheduled to list next week, and we expect more launches to further fill out the calendar.

To catch you up, here are the top IPO candidates for the next few weeks, roughly in order of how soon they can launch:

• Aura Minerals (AUGO): Gold miner in Latin America.
• Almonty Industries (ALM): Tungsten producer.
• Carlsmed (CARL): Spinal surgery equipment.
• Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): Aussie meat producer.
• StubHub (STUB): Online ticket marketplace.
• McGraw Hill (MH): Educational publisher.
• NielsenIQ (NIQ): Consumer market data.
• Accelerant (ARX): Insurance marketplace.
• Figma (FIG): Web design tool.
• Ambiq Micro (AMBQ): Low-power chips.
• Shoulder Innovations (SI): Shoulder medical devices.
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY): Space missions & defense.

Figma is worth highlighting, as the type of large and fast-growing "Rule of 40" software developer that's been absent from the IPO market for much of the past three years.

The IPO Index slipped -2.8% this week, compared to a -0.3% loss for the S&P 500. Venture Global, the year’s largest IPO to date, topped the index with a +14.9% gain, riding renewed optimism over its role as a key natural gas supplier to Europe, and by investor sentiment that the stock had been oversold and undervalued. AI hyperscaler CoreWeave pulled back -23.8%, and while the Street was mostly favorable on its $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific, it faced analyst downgrades citing an overheated valuation.