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ECB's Sleijpen Says Market's Rate Hike Expectations Are 'Reasonable'

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Olaf Sleijpen, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that market expectations for rate hikes this year are 'reasonable'. He noted that current market pricing reflects two 0.25 percentage point increases in deposit rates, with the first set for June. Sleijpen mentioned that the ECB will assess the situation in the Middle East in the weeks leading up to its April policy meeting

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Two-year euro zone bond yields set for weekly decline in tense trade

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Recently, US stocks have staged a strong rebound while US Treasury yields have only declined slightly. Deutsche Bank points out that corporate earnings are nominal indicators, making stocks naturally inflation-resistant; meanwhile, pre-war pricing for US bonds was aggressive on rate cuts, creating an inherent pricing bias. This is compounded by war-induced market expectations of increased fiscal spending, further amplifying the divergence between stocks and bonds

- Oil price fluctuations continue to dominate macro asset risk pricing, with divergent transmission paths emerging.  
- Since the outbreak of the Iran war, stock sensitivity to oil prices has decreased, while bonds remain closely aligned, reshaping their relative performance.  
- Despite current discrepancies in the stock and bond markets, both will likely remain highly sensitive to oil prices, with potential shifts in market dynamics if oil prices rise significantly again.

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US Stocks Have 'Forgotten the War', Why Are US Treasuries Still Hesitating?

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- Finance ministers from the G7 nations emphasized the need to limit the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict and stressed the urgency of achieving lasting peace.  
- This topic, along with ensuring the security of critical mineral supply chains and supporting Ukraine amid ongoing Russian aggression, was one of the key issues discussed during informal talks at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.  
- The discussions were prompted by current global economic challenges and the responsibilities of the G7 presidency held by the French Ministry of Finance.

G7 finance chiefs say it is urgent to limit Middle East war's cost to global economy

India's Shapoorji Pallonji Group has reportedly received investor approval for a two-month extension on debt repayment for its unit, Goswami Infratech. The company, which raised 143 billion rupees ($1.54 billion) through bond sales, is seeking to extend the maturity of high-yield notes to June 30 from April 30. Investors are likely to approve this request without additional demands. Goswami Infratech's plans to raise $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion have faced delays due to increased rupee hedging costs. Deutsche Bank is arranging a new zero-coupon bond issue for the company.

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- Major brokerages are predicting two interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2026, despite the Fed's recent signal for only one cut due to heightened inflation fears linked to the Middle East conflict.  
- Goldman Sachs, BofA Global Research, and Barclays now anticipate the first cut will occur in September 2026.  
- Money market participants currently do not expect any easing from the Fed this year, shifting from prior expectations for two rate cuts before the conflict began.

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

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CITIGROUP INC 6.250 NON CUM SER II PFD WI

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

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MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

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WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

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JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

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FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages stick to two Fed rate cuts in 2026

Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year. It originally anticipated a quarter-point rate cut in September, but due to strong economic growth, a tight labor market, and inflation risks from rising oil prices, the room for rate cuts is limited. Deutsche Bank believes that a rate cut requires a weakening labor market and declining inflation. Although the possibility of a rate hike is not small, it is expected that this will not happen this year. The money market indicates that the chance of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates before the end of the year is close to 69%

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Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year

The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in June due to inflation concerns linked to the conflict in Iran. A Bloomberg survey indicates eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% this year, above the previous forecast of 2%, before decreasing to 2.1% by 2026 and 2% by 2027. While ECB officials may prefer to keep rates unchanged at the end of April, some believe a rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out.

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ECB to Raise Interest Rates in June Amid Inflation Concerns, Survey Finds

The German government has revised its growth forecasts downward for 2026 and 2027, citing rising oil and gas prices due to the Iran war. The growth expectation for this year is now 0.5%, reduced from 1.0%, and for next year, it has been cut to 0.9% from a previous estimate of 1.3%. Additionally, inflation projections have been raised.

- The German government has revised its growth forecasts downward for 2026 and 2027, citing the impact of the Iran war on oil and gas prices.  
- For 2023, the growth expectation is now 0.5%, reduced from 1.0%, while the forecast for 2024 is lowered to 0.9% from 1.3%.  
- Additionally, inflation projections have been increased due to rising energy costs.

Exclusive - German government cuts growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, source says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest Fiscal Monitor Report on the 15th, pointing out that against the backdrop of tight public finances in many countries, it advises governments to carefully adjust fiscal policies, providing assistance to the public while ensuring the basic operation of public finances, so as to cope with the shock to the global economy caused by the Middle East war

IMF: Advises Countries to Carefully Adjust Fiscal Policies to Cope with Shock from Middle East War

The European Central Bank took a cautious stance on raising interest rates in the March meeting, believing there is currently insufficient evidence to support a rate hike. The meeting minutes indicate that decision-makers believe the impact of the Iran war may be temporary, but also warned of potential risks such as rising energy prices and uncertainty. The central bank will continue to monitor data to take policy action if necessary

The European Central Bank is cautious about raising interest rates too early at the March meeting

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks stated that market expectations for two rate hikes this year are reasonable. He noted that while significant second-round inflation effects have not yet materialized, firms may adjust prices more quickly due to recent inflation experiences. Kazaks emphasized that every ECB meeting is crucial, with potential data shifts before the April 30 meeting. Currently, a June rate hike is priced in at 67%, with 50 bps of hikes expected by December. He cautioned about the volatility in energy prices and maintained a restrictive stance to manage inflation.

- The European Central Bank (ECB) may experience significant data changes before the April 30 policy meeting, affecting market expectations for interest rate hikes.  
- A recent report indicated a reduced likelihood of an April rate increase, with the implied probability dropping from 39% to 21%, while June has a 67% chance of a hike.  
- ECB member Martins Kazaks suggested that the expectation for two rate increases this year is reasonable, highlighting a shift in corporate behavior to adjust prices more quickly due to recent inflation experiences.

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ECB's Kazaks: Market pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonable

USDU

Deutsche Bank AG and Wells Fargo predict that as the US and Iran reach a fragile ceasefire agreement, the dollar's upward trend may come to an end, with investors turning to risk assets. Data shows that the dollar's safe-haven ratio has risen to a two-year high, and confidence in the dollar in the options market has declined. Over the past week, the dollar has given back most of its gains, approaching pre-conflict levels. If the US-Iran conflict is resolved quickly, the dollar may enter a prolonged period of weakness. Pakistan is attempting to mediate a longer ceasefire, but the situation remains uncertain

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Iran Situation | Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo Predict That If the US and Iran Reach an Agreement, the Dollar's Uptrend Will Come to an End

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Berlin agrees electricity price mechanism for industry, HB newspaper reports

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ECB's Sleijpen Says Market's Rate Hike Expectations Are 'Reasonable'

Two-year euro zone bond yields set for weekly decline in tense trade

US Stocks Have 'Forgotten the War', Why Are US Treasuries Still Hesitating?

EUROPE POWER-German year-ahead contracts edge up, tracking gas prices

G7 finance chiefs say it is urgent to limit Middle East war's cost to global economy