The global oil supply disruption triggered by the Iran war is causing aviation fuel costs in Europe to surge sharply, bringing mounting pressure for ticket price hikes.

Analysis released Tuesday by the transport and environment advocacy group Transport & Environment (T&E) shows that compared to pre-war levels, the rise in aviation fuel prices has increased average fuel costs per passenger on long-haul flights departing from Europe by 88 euros (approximately 104 dollars), while intra-European flights have seen an increase of 29 euros. This analysis uses April 16 price data as a baseline, comparing it to levels before the US-Israel-Iran war broke out on February 28.

Executives from major European carriers including Lufthansa, Ryanair, and Air France-KLM made clear statements in March that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists for an extended period, higher fuel costs will be passed on to consumers. Currently, aviation fuel prices have risen above $100 per barrel, and concerns about widespread flight cancellations due to supply shortages continue to intensify.

On the policy front, the EU is expected to release aviation fuel supply management guidelines on Wednesday and is pushing to enhance energy independence through increased investment in green aviation fuels.

Airlines Face Challenging Spring and Summer Season

T&E's route-by-route calculations show that fuel costs per passenger have increased by 26 euros for the Barcelona-to-Berlin route, while transatlantic flights from Paris to New York have seen a cost increase of 129 euros per passenger. The organization's methodology involves calculating the average fuel consumption across all flights departing from Europe and dividing it by the total number of departing passengers to quantify the actual cost impact of the fuel price surge on each passenger.

Major European airlines are preparing for a stressful spring and summer operating season. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, aviation fuel prices have continued to climb, now significantly exceeding $100 per barrel, and fuel shortages may further disrupt normal flight operations. All three major European airline groups—Lufthansa, Ryanair, and Air France-KLM—have signaled in March that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, higher fuel costs will be directly reflected in ticket prices, with consumers bearing the brunt.

Fuel Shock Reignites Climate Policy Debate

In its analysis, T&E also noted that the additional costs brought by this spike in fuel prices far exceed the compliance expenditures incurred by airlines due to adherence to EU climate policies. Diane Vitry, Director of Aviation at T&E, stated:

"The Middle East crisis proves that our true vulnerability lies not in regulations designed to address this issue, but in tanks filled with foreign oil."

Against this backdrop, calls within the European aviation industry to relax EU climate regulatory measures have resurfaced, reigniting controversy. These demands include suspending the mandate for mandatory use of synthetic green aviation fuels by 2030 and requesting a review of upcoming carbon pricing rules. The EU, however, maintains that expanding investment in green aviation fuels is the core path to addressing energy vulnerability and has incorporated it into an upcoming package of policy measures.