UOB Kay Hian: Lithium Carbonate Prices Slump Over 20% in Sep; CATL Presents Buying Opportunity on Dip
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.UOB Kay Hian reports lithium carbonate prices fell over 20% in September, citing production cuts and inventory adjustments. The broker views CATL's recent dip as a buying opportunity, maintaining a Buy rating despite market concerns over diversified battery sourcing by automakers like Li Auto, Xiaomi, and XPeng. GEELY AUTO saw strong pre-orders for its Cruiser 700, while BYD reaffirmed plans for a solid-state battery vehicle in 2027. Sector top picks include BYD, GEELY, CATL, and Mintth Group, with a Sell recommendation for Li Auto.
UOB Kay Hian said in a research report that battery-grade lithium carbonate futures prices slumped by more than 20% cumulatively in September to RMB124,000 per tonne. The decline was driven by market rumors that major battery manufacturers had scaled back production plans, while Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) adopted a broader inventory statistical methodology, resulting in a one-off adjustment that caused weekly inventory levels to surge from around 70,000 tonnes to 169,300 tonnes, dragging down the share prices of listed lithium miners.
The broker maintained its forecasts for CATL (03750.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $372.11M; Ratio 47.428% 's net profit per gigawatt-hour for 2026-2028 at RMB93.6 million, RMB95.6 million and RMB97.8 million, respectively. CATL (03750.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $372.11M; Ratio 47.428% 's A-share price once hit a one-year trough, mainly due to reports that LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) +0.680 (+1.451%) Short selling $45.20M; Ratio 25.818% , XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) +0.260 (+0.995%) Short selling $202.11M; Ratio 20.899% and XPENG-W (09868.HK) +0.860 (+2.088%) Short selling $32.70M; Ratio 17.815% were expanding their battery sourcing channels. However, the broker believes the market is overly concerned, noting that the company possesses strong moats in technology, reliability and branding, making the current weakness a buying opportunity. It maintained a Buy rating on the stock.
On the corporate front, GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) -0.060 (-0.375%) Short selling $25.96M; Ratio 10.045% 's Cruiser 700 received more than 43,900 pre-orders within one hour. Several new vehicle models launched in September have already been priced in preparation for the National Day holiday sales peak. BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) +0.350 (+0.431%) Short selling $156.08M; Ratio 32.296% reiterated plans to launch its first solid-state battery vehicle model in 2027, though the broker views 2027 as an engineering milestone rather than an earnings event and has not factored large-scale solid-state battery adoption into its forecasts.
The broker said its sector top picks are BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) +0.350 (+0.431%) Short selling $156.08M; Ratio 32.296% , GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) -0.060 (-0.375%) Short selling $25.96M; Ratio 10.045% , CATL (03750.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $372.11M; Ratio 47.428% and MINTH GROUP (00425.HK) +0.060 (+0.250%) Short selling $2.39M; Ratio 6.836% , while recommending Sell on LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) +0.680 (+1.451%) Short selling $45.20M; Ratio 25.818% . (sl/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-09-18 12:25.)
