US equities closed last week higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.15% at 7,811.54 and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.64% at 27,366.17, while Singapore moved the other way: the Straits Times Index fell 4.13% to 5,401.89. Third-quarter reporting season opens this week with the US banks and Taiwan Semiconductor, and September inflation data lands midweek.

Earnings calendar

Tuesday is the busiest pre-market session of the week, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth all reporting before the open. Wednesday brings Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock — a semiconductor-and-banks pairing that will set the tone for the rest of the week. Thursday is lighter: Charles Schwab and Prologis before the open, Interactive Brokers after the close. Friday closes with HDFC Bank. No Singapore-listed company reports this week.

TSMC's report carries the most weight. The company guided third-quarter revenue to $44.6bn–$45.8bn, roughly 12% higher quarter on quarter, and a Taiwan pre-market roundup put third-quarter revenue at a record NT$1.49trn. The focus will be high-performance computing revenue growth and advanced packaging capacity, which limits how quickly customers can scale; TSMC has reportedly placed about $2bn of interposer manufacturing with GlobalFoundries under a five-year supply arrangement. Nvidia, which has guided to about $108bn of revenue in its current quarter, is widely regarded as the largest customer, making TSMC the earliest credible read on AI demand.

Economic calendar

September CPI, published Wednesday, is the week's main macro event: consensus looks for headline inflation at 3.7% year on year, up from 3.4%, with core at 2.5% against 2.4%. Tuesday brings the NFIB small-business optimism index, last at 98.7, and September existing-home sales, expected at 3.96m against 3.98m. No central-bank decisions are scheduled in the US, Europe or Asia. Wednesday also carries China's September CPI (1.0% expected, from 0.8%) and trade balance ($116.65bn expected, from $119.09bn), while Singapore's advance third-quarter GDP estimate — 5.0% year on year expected, from 5.9% — is the local print of note.

US: what to watch

The CPI print will frame rate expectations, but the earnings detail matters as much. For the banks, credit costs and trading revenue are the lines to watch; for TSMC and ASML, high-performance computing mix and advanced packaging capacity. Nvidia's latest 10-Q showed off-balance-sheet commitments and guarantees above $530bn, up more than 180% quarter on quarter — a structure SemiAnalysis describes as credit substitution intended to lower the financing bar for AI customers. The debate is whether that widens the addressable market or concentrates cycle risk; Nvidia has also committed more than $140bn to deals and close to $100bn to equity stakes in recent months, binding capital to its ecosystem.

Singapore: what to watch

The STI's 4.13% weekly fall to 5,401.89 leaves the local market starting from a different place than Wall Street's highs. Nothing sits on the corporate calendar here this week, so direction will come from the index's heaviest weights and from spillover into semiconductor-linked counters. Wednesday's advance estimate of third-quarter GDP is the local macro event, with growth expected to cool to 5.0% year on year, and no central-bank meeting is scheduled, so the MAS policy cycle offers no fresh signal this week. The question for the tape is whether the index steadies around the 5,400 area or extends the pullback.

Risks to watch

A hotter-than-expected CPI would revive the rate debate and weigh on rate-sensitive names; a softer print would do the opposite. In AI, the concentration of commitments across Nvidia's supply chain and TSMC's packaging bottleneck are the structural risks sitting behind this week's results. Energy and geopolitics remain the wildcard: weekend reports described a US-Russia agreement on an energy ceasefire and an easing of diesel export sanctions through 2027, with Ukraine's response still pending — any reversal would feed through to refined-product prices, shipping fuel costs and inflation expectations.

For information only; not investment advice.