StoneX Group (SNEX) has announced a new share repurchase program that allows the company to buy back up to 5,000,000 shares of its common stock through September 30, 2027, following board approval in late August 2026.

At a share price of $69.46, StoneX Group has had a strong year to date, with a 60.49% share price return and a 51.85% total shareholder return over 1 year, even though the 90 day share price return declined 11.47% after a 5.50% gain over the past month.

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StoneX Group has delivered strong long term shareholder returns and is now backing that up with a sizable buyback plan. The next step is to ask whether the stock price already reflects that strength or still leaves room on the table.

Most Popular Narrative: 55.2% Undervalued

StoneX Group's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $155 per share, which sits well above the recent $69.46 close. That gap is exactly what has caught investors' attention according to HedgeY.

StoneX wins by being useful in messy markets.

Farmers hedge crops. Corporates manage FX. Institutions clear derivatives. Traders need liquidity. Commodity firms need physical market access. Clients move money across borders. StoneX sits in the middle of those flows and earns spreads, commissions, clearing fees, interest income, and service revenue.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

The fair value call leans heavily on StoneX Group's earnings engine. It links high returns on equity, strong book value compounding, and broad revenue streams into one concise pricing story. It also highlights the earnings power assumptions and balance sheet metrics that sit behind that $155 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $155 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the StoneX Group narrative can quickly weaken if derivatives volumes cool or if the R.J. O’Brien integration fails to deliver the expected business benefits.

Find out about the key risks to this StoneX Group narrative.

Another View on StoneX Group's Valuation

While the popular narrative tags StoneX Group as 55.2% undervalued at $155 per share, the SWS DCF model presents a different perspective. At $69.46, the stock is trading well above an estimated future cash flow value of $22.08. That indicates an overvalued signal based on cash flows. Which story do you trust more for your own decision making?

For readers who want to see how this cash flow view is built step by step, it helps to review the full SWS DCF model in the context of the other metrics already discussed. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out StoneX Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play for StoneX Group, sentiment in this article is clearly mixed, so act quickly and review the full picture yourself through 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.