Key Points

• STI snapshot: The Straits Times Index last closed at 5,415.53 (+0.22%) on Friday, Oct 16, with the three banks stabilizing after last week's sharp pullback.
• Local catalyst: DBS, OCBC and UOB head into Q3 results — UOB reports Nov 4, DBS Nov 5 and OCBC Nov 6 — after brokers flagged that earnings may miss market forecasts.
• US overnight: The S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.1% on Friday as AI-debt fears deepened, leaving both with their worst week since June.
• Today's schedule: A heavy earnings week opens, with Netflix Tuesday, Meta and Tesla Wednesday, and Nvidia's GTC Berlin keynote Wednesday.

Singapore Open

The STI logged a modest rebound on Friday, adding 12.03 points to close at 5,415.53. That stabilised sentiment after heavy bank selling earlier in the month dragged the benchmark from about 5,700 to below 5,400. Among the blue chips, $DBS (D05.SG)$ closed at S$74.11 (+0.49%) and $OCBC (O39.SG)$ settled at S$29.00 (+0.03%), while $UOB (U11.SG)$ closed around S$41.61 (-0.19%). $Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG)$ gained 0.62% to S$6.53 as elevated oil prices were partly offset by freight and passenger demand, and $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ rose 0.48% to S$4.18.

The bigger question now is the banks' third-quarter season. Analysts have warned that Q3 earnings for all three lenders may miss market forecasts, with the Business Times reporting mixed calls on OCBC and UOB and DBS still the preferred pick. With rate-hike headlines resurfacing in the US, the net interest margin and asset-quality story in early November will matter more than Friday's small bounce.

Singapore Macro

Last Wednesday the MAS held its monetary policy settings, keeping the Singapore dollar on its appreciating S$NEER path, even as Q3 advance GDP printed 5.4% year-on-year. The central bank trimmed its 2026 core-inflation forecast but noted upside risks from energy and food, after core inflation ticked up to 2.1% in July-August from 1.5% in Q2. For SGX readers, the transmission runs through two channels: a firmer SGD helps damp imported energy costs but squeezes banks' overseas translation and REIT valuations, while the risk that the Federal Reserve hikes again in October or December keeps local SORA elevated into the banks' results.

Weekend Wrap

The weekend narrative stayed with AI. CoreWeave's credit stress became the focal point of the tech selloff, with its 2031 bond yield near 16% and five-year CDS above 1,000 basis points — levels typically associated with distress. Oil held near cycle highs as Iran and Russia-Ukraine supply risks persisted, with Brent closing Friday at US$109.86 a barrel, its highest since May. Hawkish central-bank rhetoric also stayed in play, with the BoJ and ECB signaling more tightening while the US 10-year yield held around 5.10%. Fed officials enter their pre-FOMC blackout period this week, so no policy commentary is expected.

US Overnight (Friday Close)

The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 7,659.44 and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.1% to 26,140.03, capping a week that ranked as their worst since June. The Dow lost 0.3% to 52,002.41 but still rose for the week. The 10-year Treasury yield settled near 5.097%, up about 2bps on the day, while the VIX spiked roughly 21% to around 20, its highest since June.

Key Movers

$CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ -11.9% — The AI-cloud provider closed at $61.39 after losing about a quarter of its value on the week. Investors are repricing debt-funded data-center buildouts as five-year credit-default swaps topped 1,000bps and a 2031 bond yield neared 16%, feeding doubt about whether AI infrastructure returns can cover escalating financing costs. The stress rippled across AI-infrastructure peers and kept the sector under pressure.

$Micron (MU.US)$ -5.6% — Memory names fell for an eighth straight session, the longest chip losing streak since 2008. Reports that China's CXMT made progress on 4F2 architecture raised fears that memory supply could loosen sooner than expected, pressuring prices and margins. SK Hynix and SanDisk also slid more than 4%.

$AMD (AMD.US)$ -6.0% — The pullback spread from AI-debt concerns to the broader semiconductor complex, with Intel down 5.8% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF logging a ninth consecutive decline. Chipmakers are being reassessed as a group as investors question how long the AI capex boom can run.

Asia Pre-Market

Into Monday's Asia session, WTI crude traded near US$101.41 a barrel (+3.5%) with Brent at US$109.86, gold was little changed around US$4,166 an ounce, and Bitcoin hovered near US$80,857. US equity futures were thin early Monday; Friday's close left S&P 500 futures around 7,704 and Nasdaq 100 futures near 29,392, so the tone remains cautious rather than panicky. For the SGX open, the most relevant signal is energy's strength versus tech's weakness — a mix that has so far favored defensives, oil-linked names and utilities while keeping a lid on the AI supply chain.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Earnings accelerate this week, with Netflix setting the megacap tone Tuesday and Meta and Tesla dominating Wednesday after the US close — which lands early Thursday morning Singapore time.

Earnings Spotlight: $Meta (META.US)$. The Street looks for $5.94 EPS on about $63.4 billion in revenue. Consensus has drifted down roughly 9% over the past month as analysts weigh whether AI capex can keep growing while margins hold up. With Nvidia's GTC Berlin keynote landing the same Wednesday, Meta's print is effectively a live stress test of the AI trade.

One More Thing

Watch breadth, not just the Nasdaq. Last week seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose — energy, staples and utilities led — even as technology dropped about 7.7%. That pattern looks like rotation, not capitulation. The real tell is in credit markets: if CoreWeave-style spreads keep widening while defensive sectors hold up, the AI unwind is being absorbed, not amplified. If credit stress starts dragging the Dow and small caps as well, that is a different, risk-off story.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.