Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise
Citi now forecasts two 25 basis point rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2026, starting in February and followed by May, due to rising inflation risks. This shift reflects a tight labor market, higher inflation forecasts, and strong housing and household consumption. Citi warns that delaying action could entrench inflation pressures. Market pricing has adjusted, with traders assigning a 23% probability of a February hike. The housing market is highlighted as a key source of inflation risk, driven by faster-than-expected activity and government policies.
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