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Traders See US Consumer Inflation Accelerating Over Next 12 Months

US Treasury Releases Quarterly Refinancing Statement Without Adjusting Long-Term Bond Issuance

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Panics about the rising US deficit have stirred up bond vigilantes before. An economist thinks concerns about military spending are driving yields higher.

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A former IMF economist says he's worried that military spending will widen the US deficit and jack up borrowing costs

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The USD/JPY outlook is pressured by rising US yields and escalating energy prices due to the Iran conflict. The yen is vulnerable as Japan relies heavily on energy imports, leading to a currency slide. The correlation between USD/JPY and US Treasury yields has strengthened, indicating interest rate differentials are driving the currency's movement. The Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting may reveal shifts in policy sentiment, with a potential tightening expected in April. However, intervention risks are rising as authorities monitor excessive currency fluctuations.

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USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Rally pressures Japan as yields surge ahead of Fed, BoJ

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According to the Mortgage News Daily in the United States, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has reached 6.41%, the highest rate since the first week of September, but still lower than 6.78% during the same period last year. Influenced by the war in Iran, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, causing mortgage rates to soar to their highest level since September on Friday

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The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate soars to the highest level since September

The 10-year Treasury yield was headed for its steepest two-week climb in almost a year amid the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran.

Investors are shunning US debt as a haven play during the Iran conflict

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Rising oil prices may pressure global financial markets by straining Japan's currency, impacting the yen carry trade and U.S. Treasury flows, warns Martin Pelletier of TriVest Wealth Counsel. He highlights Japan's vulnerability to these changes, suggesting significant implications for investors.

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Japan’s energy import shock could ripple into yen carry trade and US Treasuries, Pelletier says

Investors weigh the downward revision of the U.S. fourth-quarter domestic economic growth data, leading to a decline in the yield of the two-year Treasury bond. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell by 4.3 basis points to 3.719%. The yield on the ten-year bond remained at 4.273%. The yield on the thirty-year bond rose by 1.7 basis points to 4.902%

"Debt Market" assesses the downward revision of the U.S. GDP for the last quarter, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield declining

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Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increasing yields, and rising oil prices, corporate borrowers in the United States have shown resilience. Bloomberg posted on X that U.S. investment-grade bond sales have approached near-record levels this week. The robust activity in the bond market indicates strong demand and confidence among investors, even as private credit markets face distress. This trend highlights the ability of corporate borrowers to navigate challenging economic conditions while maintaining access to capital.

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U.S. Investment-Grade Bond Sales Near Record Levels Amid Global Tensions

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The surge in oil prices has ignited global inflation alarms, with the "panic index" MOVE for U.S. Treasuries soaring to a nine-month high, and the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries reaching a one-month high. Market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 have nearly vanished. Under the shadow of stagflation, government bond prices worldwide, from the United States to Japan and Australia, are under pressure, and volatility may remain high for an extended period

- The ongoing conflict in Iran is driving up oil prices and inflation expectations, leading to a surge in volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds, with bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 nearly disappearing.  
- The ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, a gauge of bond market volatility, has reached its highest level since June 2022, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields as investors anticipate central banks may raise rates to combat inflation.  
- Concerns over stagflation are mounting as the conflict escalates, prompting major financial firms to reassess the risk landscape, which is intensifying market uncertainty and reducing expectations for interest rate cuts.

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The "fear index" for U.S. Treasuries soared to a nine-month high, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have "cooled off."

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The deterioration of fiscal conditions and inflationary pressures are simultaneously squeezing the global bond market. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surged to nearly 4.90%, erasing all gains made this year; long-term interest rates are under pressure across countries from Europe to the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. $50 billion war funding, trillion-dollar deficit, and sudden loss of tariff revenue—multiple negative factors are compounding, and the market has begun to price in long-term fiscal sustainability, with "5% being attractive" likely becoming the new normal

- Concerns over financial expenditures from the U.S.-Iran war are causing a global sell-off in long-term bonds, with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rising nearly to 4.90%. 
- This yield increase reflects fears that governments will heavily borrow to fund defense and subsidize households affected by rising energy prices, contributing to dual pressures of inflation and fiscal deterioration. 
- Global borrowing pressures are not isolated to the U.S.; countries worldwide face similar challenges, with expectations of higher long-term rates as a new market norm due to ongoing conflicts and increased government spending.

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The Middle East conflict triggers global "deficit panic": 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches 4.9%, and this year's bond market gains have all been wiped out!

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The EMEA Morning Briefing highlights economic risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran. European stock futures rose while Asian markets fell, with the dollar strengthening slightly. Analysts predict continued volatility in equity markets due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. U.S. Treasury yields decreased amid inflation concerns, and oil prices are expected to remain high due to supply disruptions. Gold prices fell as the conflict persists, while iron ore gained amid liquidity concerns. The financial sector faces pressure from rising bond yields and instability in private-credit markets.

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EMEA Morning Briefing: Economic Risks of Iran War Build

On Thursday (March 12), U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations: the two-year Treasury yield rose by more than 10 basis points to 3.7637%; the ten-year Treasury yield increased by over 3.30 basis points, reaching a high of 4.2746%; the thirty-year Treasury yield slightly fell by 0.30 basis points to 4.8755%. In addition, the 2/10 year Treasury yield spread decreased by more than 5.660 basis points, refreshing to +49.611 basis points

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The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points, surpassing 3.76%

U.S. Treasury bonds are likened to a bad boyfriend by finance expert Martha Gimbel, who notes that investors are hesitant to leave due to limited options. Despite a declining allure, the U.S. Treasury market remains attractive due to its liquidity. Concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook persist, with a projected budget deficit averaging over 6% of GDP through 2036. Experts urge Congress to address the deficit sustainably, while the ongoing conflict with Iran may further widen the deficit. The situation reflects a K-shaped economy, where wealth disparities continue to grow.

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U.S. Treasurys look like the bad boyfriend at the start of a Hallmark movie, finance expert says

Treasuries experienced a significant decline, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note rising to 4.273 percent, marking its highest level in over a month. This slump coincided with a sharp increase in crude oil prices, which rose nearly 11 percent to $96.70 a barrel. Concerns over transit through the Strait of Hormuz were heightened following attacks on foreign ships. Additionally, U.S. unemployment claims slightly decreased to 213,000, contrary to expectations of an increase. Upcoming economic reports may be overshadowed by Middle East developments.

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Treasuries Show Another Significant Move To The Downside

The USDJPY is extending upward, driven by rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Crude oil increased by 9.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.257%. The pair is approaching the January high of 159.447, with key support levels at 158.875-158.90. If momentum continues, targets include 160.00 and 161.92. Short-term support is provided by the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages at 159.05 and 158.99, respectively. A drop below these levels could shift the bias to bearish.

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USDJPY Technicals.  The USDJPY continues the stretch to the 2026 high.

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A key inflation gauge, the one-year break-even inflation rate, has reached 4.62%, the highest since June 2022, amid rising concerns over inflation due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This increase reflects market fears of persistent inflation, with the two-year break-even rate also rising to 3.18%. The situation poses challenges for investors, particularly retirees, as yields on short-term Treasuries have climbed. The Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates may be hindered by high inflation, impacting stock markets as oil prices surge above $100 per barrel.

- Rising expectations for short-term price increases pose challenges for the Trump administration, which aims to quell inflation concerns before midterms.  
- As tensions escalate in the Middle East, key inflation indicators, such as the one-year breakeven inflation rate, have reached their highest levels since 2022, impacting both stock and bond markets.  
- Market analysts warn that sustained inflation could hinder Federal Reserve rate cuts, affecting broader economic stability and investor sentiment.

ISHRS Us Trsry Bd(GOVT.US)

A former IMF economist says he's worried that military spending will widen the US deficit and jack up borrowing costs

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Rally pressures Japan as yields surge ahead of Fed, BoJ

The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate soars to the highest level since September

Investors are shunning US debt as a haven play during the Iran conflict

Japan’s energy import shock could ripple into yen carry trade and US Treasuries, Pelletier says