By William Gavin

The recent Starship launch helps SpaceX with a number of priorities that could help its stock reach $900 over the long run, an analyst says

SpaceX on Monday delivered to orbit its first "meaningful payload," or 26 Starlink satellites.

Numerous analysts covering SpaceX have floated astronomical valuations for the company, and one now says that the company's latest rocket launch moves SpaceX closer to a lofty target.

Citi analysts led by John Godyn on Tuesday wrote that the successful 14th flight of Starship, the world's largest and most powerful rocket, is a "step" toward SpaceX shares (SPCX) being worth $900 or more. That would value the company at roughly $12.2 trillion, or more than twice the size of Nvidia (NVDA) today. SpaceX currently has a market capitalization around $2 trillion.

"We believe that SPCX's unrivaled launch capabilities represent the foundational competitive advantage that enables all other parts of its business," Godyn said in a note to clients, labeling the recent Starship mission a "major" milestone.

SpaceX on Monday launched Starship for the first time since July and, despite a faulty engine, managed to put the rocket in orbit for the first time as well. The vehicle was also able to deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites, marking Starship's first revenue-generating mission.

Godyn said the mission brings SpaceX closer to "unlocking the full valuation" of its artificial-intelligence and connectivity businesses. Both are key to his $900 long-term price target for SpaceX's stock - as well as his $200 target for the end of the year.

His long-term target assumes SpaceX's business grows rapidly. In 2026, Wall Street expects SpaceX to report just $44 billion in sales and $21 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, an adjusted profit metric that ignores certain costs, according to FactSet data.

By 2030, Godyn expects SpaceX to generate $484 billion in revenue along with Ebitda of $360 billion, while the consensus view is lower, at $409 billion in revenue and $311 billion in Ebitda.

For 2031, Citi forecasts about $1 trillion in revenue, in line with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk's bold prediction.

While Starship won't be generating the majority of that revenue, it's expected to enable it. The vehicle can carry dozens of advanced Starlink satellites and AI satellites to orbit, unlocking a potentially major opportunity for SpaceX. The company wants to launch thousands of rockets each year from a planned spaceport in Louisiana.

"The successful deployment of Starship will establish the most affordable and scalable path to unlocking the economic potential of space," Citi wrote in an earlier note to clients.

SpaceX shares rose about 2% in recent action on Tuesday. Bullish RBC analyst Ken Herbert on Monday wrote that Starship's latest launch should be seen as positive for the stock. He has a $225 a share price target.

With flight 14 finished, analysts are already looking ahead. Starship is expected to fly at least one more time before the end of the year, and UBS analyst John Hodulik thinks SpaceX will attempt to catch the vehicle on its next mission. Recovering Starship with the help of a launch tower's "chopstick" arms is key to making the vehicle rapidly reusable.

Catching Starship, combined with SpaceX's planned spaceport in Louisiana, could position the company to "create a steady cadence of launches in 2027," Hodulik said in a note to clients on Tuesday. He rates SpaceX's stock a buy with a $210 price target.

SpaceX will need to figure out what's behind its booster's engine issues, according to Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu. Plus, SpaceX needs to investigate the root cause of the early shutdown of one of Starship's Raptor vacuum engines, he wrote in a client note. That issue nearly resulted in SpaceX abandoning its plan to send the rocket to orbit.

-William Gavin

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09-29-26 1259ET