Conference spotlight and recent share performance

Murphy Oil (MUR) is set to present at the Barclays 40th Annual Energy Power Conference in New York on September 9, 2026, with President and CEO Eric M. Hambly speaking.

Investors tracking Murphy Oil will likely weigh this appearance alongside the recent share move, with the stock closing at US$38.20 and recording gains over the past week, month, and past three months.

At around US$38.20, Murphy Oil’s recent 30 day share price return of 10.5% and year to date share price return of 17.6% point to building momentum. The 1 year total shareholder return of 52% sits against a slightly negative 3 year total shareholder return and a much stronger 5 year total shareholder return of 126.5%.

Scan energy peers showing similar momentum to Murphy Oil and see which ones make the cut in our curated 35 high quality undervalued stocks list.

Murphy Oil has already posted a sharp one-year run. The real question now is whether paying around US$38 per share represents reasonable value, or whether it makes more sense to wait patiently for a cheaper entry point.

Most Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued

Murphy Oil’s most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of about $42.14 per share compared with the recent $38.20 close. This puts the focus squarely on how future projects and cost discipline might reshape the investment case.

Significant exploration and appraisal activity across the Gulf of Mexico, Vietnam, and Côte d'Ivoire is poised to potentially add substantial new reserves and long-lived, high-margin production, supporting long-term revenue growth and future cash flows as global energy demand rises.

Production outperformance and improved well productivity in core onshore assets (Eagle Ford and Tupper Montney), driven by optimized completion designs and operational efficiency, suggest higher sustainable production rates and lower costs, with a positive impact on net margins and earnings resilience.

See why 14 investors see Murphy Oil as 9% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $42.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, Murphy Oil’s heavy reliance on offshore exploration and high capital spending means that drilling setbacks or weaker project economics could quickly challenge the idea that the stock is 9% undervalued.

Find out about the key risks to this Murphy Oil narrative.

Next Steps

If the mixed sentiment around Murphy Oil has you on the fence, move quickly and review the full picture of both concerns and bright spots. To weigh those trade offs clearly, start with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more Murphy Oil style ideas?

If Murphy Oil is on your radar, now is the moment to widen your watchlist and explore a few more high quality ideas before others get there first.

• Target dependable income streams by reviewing companies in the 6 dividend fortresses that might help anchor your portfolio with consistent cash returns.
• Hunt for potential mispriced opportunities by scanning the 15 high quality undiscovered gems that pair robust fundamentals with limited market attention.
• Reduce portfolio stress by focusing on the 11 resilient stocks with low risk scores that feature sturdier financial profiles and lower overall risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.