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.DJI

As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

Invesco QQQ Trust

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Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares ETF

NASDAQ Composite Index

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

.SPX

As a key indicator for next week's interest rate cut, last night's August core CPI data basically confirmed that the first rate cut will only be 25 basis points.Structurally, overall inflation increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is perfectly controllable. However, core inflation rose from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month. First, it indicates that the overall inflation can operate within expectations mainly due to the drop in energy prices.Secondly, the most critical acceleration in core inflation month-on-month growth is mainly because residential costs rose sharply again to 0.5% month-on-month. The sharp increase in residential costs is mainly due to the rise in the high-weighted owner's equivalent rent.Owner's equivalent rent can basically be understood as homeowners' expected rental return on their own properties. This figure also rose during the last interest rate cut expectation at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.What does this mean? People will price their asset returns in advance based on the expectation of a rate cut. In other words, once the expectation arises, even before the actual rate cut, it will produce some effect of a rate cut. In this case, an actual rate cut of 25 basis points may have an effect greater than 25 basis points.Even to avoid a repeat of the inflation resurgence expectation at the beginning of the year, the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is most likely to be 25 basis points.Therefore, the focus of next week's FOMC meeting is no longer how many basis points the rate cut will be, but the guidance on the future path and any wording that may further lean toward protecting employment under a 25-basis-point rate cut.In this context, considering that the market was still speculating and pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis-point rate cut, this possibility is now basically gone. Bond prices may need to give back some gains for $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US).Overall, with low inflation risks, interest-rate-sensitive sectors reacted sensitively after the expectation of lower interest rates emerged, indicating a high possibility of a soft landing for the economy, which is actually favorable for equity assets. $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

S&P 500

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures resume trading

US Treasury Yields Rise, Sparking Market Jitters

Acurx Pharmaceuticals

XCF Global

60 Degrees Pharmaceuticals

Paranovus ENT Tech

Tradr 2X Long NVTS Daily ETF

Actelis Networks

Roma Green Finance

TanTech

AMC Robotics

Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF

MMKT

GOVT

Reuters

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

Texas Capital Government Mny Mkt ETF

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

United States Oil Fund LP

Pro Ultrshrt 20+Yrs Trsy

Us Brent Oil

SPDR Energy Select

ISHRS Us Trsry Bd

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

VanEck Oil Services ETF

iShares Barclays Short Treasury

TREASURIES-Yields rise as traders bet on higher for longer US rates

VGSH

Vanguard Short Term Gov

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

Pro K1 Free Crude Oil

Wall St whisperers help financial firms navigate Iran conflict risks

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

iShares Core US Aggregate Bd

iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury

TREASURIES-Yields climb on oil-driven inflation concerns

- Oil prices increased by 5% on March 11, despite the International Energy Agency's historic release of 400 million barrels of reserves, raising concerns about inflation and U.S. corporate earnings.  
- Wall Street mostly closed lower as higher energy costs strain businesses and consumers, while the two-year Treasury yields soared to the highest levels since September.  
- Private credit market worries deepened, influenced by JPMorgan reducing loan values, signaling potential liquidity issues that could impact investor confidence.

Schw Shrt Us Trsy

JPMorgan Chase

TRADING DAY-Oil and yields up, up, and away

CRCL

GLXY

COIN

Sonic Labs has launched USSD, a stablecoin on the Sonic blockchain, backed by tokenized U.S. Treasury products. The collateral for USSD comes from products issued by major asset managers like BlackRock and WisdomTree. It utilizes Frax Finance’s frxUSD infrastructure, allowing USSD to be minted on Sonic from over ten different blockchains via LayerZero’s cross-chain technology.

CoinLive

Circle

Galaxy Digital

Coinbase

BlackRock

iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF

Siren ETF Trust Siren Nasdaq NexGen Economy ETF

Amplify Transform Data Sharing ETF

WisdomTree 1-3 Year Laddered Treasury Fund - ETF

New Stablecoin USSD Launched on Sonic Blockchain Backed by U.S. Treasury Products

TREASURIES-Yields mixed after media report stirs worries over Strait of Hormuz

Fullgoal Chinabond 7-10 Year Policy Bank Bond ETF

Pengyang Chinabond 30-year Treasury Bond ETF

TREASURIES-Yields ease as oil trims gains, Trump touts Iran war progress

NDAQ

SPIB

The USD remains stable against major currencies after recent fluctuations. Crude oil prices are rising but struggling to stay below $90. U.S. yields are slightly lower, indicating a move towards lower rates. U.S. stocks are down, reflecting a risk-off sentiment. The dollar is mixed, gaining against the EUR and JPY, while the GBP weakens. Technical analysis is emphasized for traders to manage risk and set targets amid market volatility.

Investinglive

Nasdaq

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

VG Financial

SPDR Intermed Term

Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

ISHRS S&P Glb It

iShares iBoxx  Invt

iShares US Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF

The USD is little changed vs the major currency pairs after the ups and downs yesterday

The Treasury Department announced that its recent auction of $39 billion in ten-year notes attracted below average demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.45, compared to the previous month's 2.39. The high yield for the ten-year notes was 4.177 percent. This follows a similar trend in the auction of $58 billion in three-year notes, which also saw below average demand. The results for the thirty-year bonds auction are expected to be announced soon.

rttnews

Vanguard Long Term Bd

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Schwab 5-10 Year Corp Bond ETF

Guotai SSE 5-Year China Treasury Note ETF

ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF

Ten-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

GOLD

At 6:00 Beijing time, oil prices rose and broke through the recent range, while gold, U.S. stock futures, and U.S. Treasury bonds all fell, and the dollar continued to rise. Despite the International Energy Agency agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, oil prices still increased, indicating market concerns about future oil price volatility. The OVX index reached 121, suggesting that the market expects significant fluctuations in future oil prices. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.24%, reflecting market concerns about inflation

腾讯新闻 - 财经

Newmont

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Gold.com

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Global X Silver Miner

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YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

Sprott GLD Miners Etf

ISHRS MSCI Glb Slct Met & Mining

Us Gbl GLD & Met

Abrdn Platinum ETF Trust

Abrdn Palladium ETF Trust

VanEck Gold Miners ETF

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

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iShares Gold Trust

Abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

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SPDR Gold Shares

Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bear 2X

Abrdn Silver ETF Trust

GLOBAL X Gold Explorers

6:00 That Moment: Oil Up, Everything Down

IBUY

U.S.-listed ETFs maintained strong investor interest in February, with significant inflows particularly in equity ETFs, driven by technology and healthcare sectors. Fixed-income ETFs also attracted attention, especially in government bonds, as investors sought stability amid volatility. The month saw new ETF launches catering to various investment strategies, contributing to growth in assets under management. Overall, the data highlights the ongoing appeal of ETFs as flexible investment vehicles, with expectations for continued growth and innovation in the market.

Amplify Online Retail ETF

iShares US Pharma

Comm Servcies Select Sector SPDR

SPDR S&P Retail ETF

Invesco Biotechnology & Genome ETF

iShares Semiconductor ETF

Proshares Ultra Nasdaq Biotech

VanEck Biotech ETF

ALPS Medical Breakthrough

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

Global X E-commerce ETF

VG Health

First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted

SPDR S&P Semicon

iShares Biotechnology ETF

Proshares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotech

First Trust NYSE Arca Biotech Index Fd

Ark Genomic Revolution ETF

SPDR S&P Software

ProShares Ultra QQQ

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

SPDR S&P Health Equip

Spdr Select Tech

Direxion S&P Biotech Bull 3X

VG Total Stock

SPDR FD Consumer Staples

iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF

VanEck Retail ETF

iShares US Medical Devices

SPDR S&P Health

Health Care Select Sector SPDR

SPDR S&P Biotech

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF

ProShares Online Retail

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

VG S&P 500

iShares Core S&P 500

U.S.-Listed ETFs See Continued Investor Demand in February

TREASURIES-US yields rise as oil prices hit four-year peak

The ongoing war with Iran is impacting financial markets, causing stocks to drop, bond yields to rise, and the US dollar to strengthen, complicating President Trump's narrative of economic success. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.5% this month, and the 10-year Treasury yield has increased from 3.96% to 4.22%. Analysts suggest that the duration of the conflict will determine market stability, with rising oil prices potentially leading to inflation and affecting interest rates. The situation poses challenges for Trump's administration, which aims to lower borrowing costs and support American manufacturing.

- Stocks have risen and the US dollar has weakened during President Trump's second term, but the conflict with Iran is reversing these trends, causing market uncertainty.  
- As tensions escalate, the S&P 500 has dropped and yields on US Treasuries have increased, impacting borrowing costs and inflation concerns.  
- The situation complicates Trump's narrative of economic success and could hinder his midterm electoral pitch, as the longevity of the conflict remains uncertain.

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

iShares TIPS Bd

The Iran war threatens to undermine Trump’s favorite bragging point | CNN Business

Treasuries are often perceived as a safeguard against bear markets, but their effectiveness in this role is being questioned. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting that Treasuries may not provide the protection investors expect during market downturns. This perspective challenges the traditional view of Treasuries as a reliable hedge, prompting investors to reconsider their strategies in volatile markets.

Pmco Enh Shrt Maturity

iShares Government Money Market ETF

VG Extend Trsy

Treasuries' Role in Bear Markets Questioned

JABS

Aristotle Atlantic Partners reported a strong second quarter for U.S. markets, highlighting a sharp rebound...

Janus Henderson Asset-Backed Secs ETF

ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg

Dow Jones Utility Average

Fidelity MSCI Financials Index

iShares Barclays MBS Fixed Rate Bd

Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF

Vanguard Short Term Bd

DoubleLine Asset-Backed Securities ETF

iShares Trust iShares 1-5 Year Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF

NASDAQ-100

VictoryShares Pioneer Asst-Based Inc ETF

US stocks rebound as bonds rally

The data will absolutely look good😂

jackson beat it

Now the data isn't important anymore, the new chairman has only been nominated and isn't confirmed yet

HeyItsDaniel！

Heads up: US Nonfarm Payrolls tonight 🕘 US Feb jobs data drops at 9.30pm SG time. Market expecting +59k — a sharp drop from last month's 130k. If it comes in weaker, odds of a June rate cut could tick up. War headlines may dominate sentiment for now, but jobs data still matters — it directly influences the Fed's next move and market liquidity. $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

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