UAMY

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks related to rare earths performed actively, with United States Antimony (UAMY.US) soaring over 20%, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) and NioCorp Developments (NB.US) rising over 5%, TMC the metals (TMC.US) increasing over 3%, and MP Materials (MP.US) gaining nearly 2%.

In terms of news, on September 23, UAMY announced that it had received a single-source contract from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency's Strategic Materials Division worth up to $245 million for the indefinite delivery and unlimited quantity of antimony ingots to replenish the U.S. National Strategic Material Reserve. The company operates one of only two antimony smelters in North America, with projected revenue of $14.9 million in 2024. This contract is valued at approximately 16 times the annual revenue and is ready to fulfill the first order immediately.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that antimony is a strategically scarce minor metal. Currently, domestic restrictions on antimony mining are intensifying, and overseas mines are also facing resource depletion. It is expected that the main global increase in antimony mines in the future will come from the Huayu Mining Takin project and the Solonechenskoye antimony mine in Russia. In terms of demand, traditional fields such as flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and polyester catalysts show steady demand for antimony. Driven by the continuous increase in new photovoltaic installations and the penetration rate of double-glass components, the photovoltaic glass sector is expected to contribute significantly to the increase in antimony demand, becoming the second-largest demand area for antimony. As antimony exports gradually recover, the domestic and international price gap is expected to converge, and the supply-demand tension in the medium to long term is likely to push the antimony price center upward.

According to Zhito Finance APP, Polar Gold is one of the main sources of antimony supply overseas. In 2023, Polar Gold's antimony production was 27,100 tons, accounting for 26% of global antimony production. In 2024, Polar Gold's antimony production is expected to be 12,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53%, with its share of global antimony production dropping to 13%. In the first and second halves of 2024, Polar Gold's antimony production is expected to be 8,616 tons and 4,056 tons, respectively, with annualized production accounting for 17% and 8% of global antimony production.

Everbright Securities released a research report stating that according to Polar Gold's semi-annual report for 2025, the antimony production for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 0. The company's 2024 annual report predicts that total cash costs will increase in 2025. Since antimony is a by-product that offsets costs, one reason for the rising costs may be the significant decline in antimony production. It is reasonably expected that antimony production in the second half of 2025 will continue to remain low. This year, antimony prices initially rose and then fell. Looking ahead, exports are expected to gradually recover, with limited incremental growth in the medium to long term, and a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices. Due to resource endowments, the incremental supply of domestic and international antimony mines is limited; as China's compliant antimony exports gradually recover, there is optimism for the upward movement of the antimony price center.

Hong Kong stocks related to rare earths and antimony:

China Molybdenum (01208): Hunan Xingshan Antimony Industry, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Molybdenum, controls over 300,000 tons of antimony resources in the Xishan mine Jiangxi Copper (00358): The company's products include crude antimony and sodium antimonate compounds