Gordon Haskett Spotlights Mixed 2026 Outlook for Restaurant Stocks Amid Estimate Revisions
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Gordon Haskett's analysis of 2026 restaurant stock forecasts reveals mixed sentiment. Half of the 20+ companies saw stable or rising estimates, with Cheesecake Factory and Starbucks improving across all metrics. Conversely, Papa Johns and Wendy's faced downward revisions. Over a 12-month horizon, most chains experienced estimate downgrades, though casual dining stocks outperformed fast casual and pizza brands. The sector lagged the S&P 500, with same-store sales estimates strongly correlating to share price movements.
Gordon Haskett has just wrapped up an extensive look at 2026 forecast changes for over 20 restaurant companies, covering everything from same-store sales to earnings per share and revenue. The update reveals fresh splits in sentiment across the sector following recent earnings reports.
The takeaway? Roughly half of the firms either held steady or saw estimates rise for calendar 2026, while the rest experienced declines. The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), BJ's Restaurants (BJRI), and Starbucks (SBUX) are notable for scorecard improvements across all fronts-same-store sales, earnings, EBITDA, and revenue.
Meanwhile, brands like Papa Johns (PZZA), Wendy's (WEN), Jack in the Box (JACK), and Wingstop (WING) are facing across-the-board downward revisions for the same period.
Zooming out to a 12-month horizon, estimate downgrades have become more common-14 out of 22 chains recorded decreases, with El Pollo Loco (LOCO), Dutch Bros (BROS), and Brinker International (EAT) as exceptions posting positive revisions.
The contrast extends to market performance, too. The restaurant space overall logged an average share price increase of about 6% over the last year-well behind the 18% rise posted by the S&P 500. Casual dining outfits stole the spotlight with stronger share gains while fast casual and pizza brands lagged.
Estimate shifts for same-store sales remain highly predictive of share price movements, maintaining a correlation near 0.68 over the past year. This ties closely with combined earnings, EBITDA, and revenue estimate adjustments that tracked at about 0.67.
Some standout cases include Dutch Bros, Domino's Pizza (DPZ), and Wingstop, which have seen disconnects between their share price traction and analyst revisions-a note worth flashing on the radar when considering valuation dynamics.
No company has yet dominated as a one-stop shop of growth, but the mixed signals reflect a sector still sorting through post-pandemic recovery patterns, inflation pressures, and shifting consumer spending.
Will the casual dining segment maintain its edge as the calendar flips closer to 2027? The data certainly gives a lot to chew on.