[HONG KONG] BYD is projecting an increase in annual sales, fuelled by a more optimistic domestic outlook and an aggressive global expansion that aims to defy cooling demand in the broader electric vehicle market, said JPMorgan Chase.

The Shenzhen-based automaker now expects domestic sales to reach between 3.5 million and four million units this year, the bank’s analysts said in a note following a post-holiday briefing with management. The guidance represents growth of up to 13 per cent in its home market, exceeding analyst estimates that had largely expected flat volumes or even a moderate decline.

The company’s bullishness is bolstered by a massive overseas offensive, with management reiterating a target of 1.5 million vehicle sales abroad, a 50 per cent jump from the previous year. When combined, BYD is effectively aiming for total global deliveries of five million to 5.5 million units, an up to 20 per cent increase from the previous year.

The analysts, led by Nick Lai, noted that management’s growing confidence stems from “solid order flow” for newly launched models equipped with ultra-fast charging solutions, including the Great Tang six-seater sport utility vehicle that debuted during last month’s Beijing Auto show.

To support such a global volume, BYD is also shifting its overseas product mix. Plug-in hybrids now account for more than half of its international sales in the first four months of the year, and Europe-exclusive models are being planned.

BYD’s overseas sales jumped 71 per cent in April as surging petrol prices in the wake of the Iran war spurred renewed interest in electric cars, though softening demand in China dragged total deliveries down for the eighth month year on year in a row.

Overseas sales are expected to contribute roughly 60 per cent of BYD’s vehicle revenue in 2026, the note said. BLOOMBERG