---
title: "UnitedHealth Group (UNH) to Report Q2 Earnings: Market’s Focus on Rebound or Continued Decline?"
description: "The healthcare giant UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will be the first to release its Q2 earnings. The healthcare sector has been the worst-performing this year, with stocks falling across the board. The mar"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000166429.md"
published_at: "2025-07-29T10:26:48.000Z"
author: "[andwagon effect～1](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16656322)"
---

# UnitedHealth Group (UNH) to Report Q2 Earnings: Market’s Focus on Rebound or Continued Decline?

The healthcare giant UnitedHealth Group ($Unitedhealth(UNH.US) ) will be the first to release its Q2 earnings. The healthcare sector has been the worst-performing this year, with stocks falling across the board. The market is now keen to see whether UNH will continue its downward trend or make a strong rebound. Below is my summary:

**Why is UNH so closely watched?**

**Bottom of the market:** The healthcare sector has been the worst-performing in the U.S. stock market this year.

**Guidance anxiety:** UNH and its peers have canceled or lowered their full-year guidance, leaving investors with a very uncertain valuation framework.

**Policy changes:** Major government programs—ACA (Obamacare), Medicaid, and Medicare—are undergoing significant changes, increasing cost and revenue pressures.

**Core business breakdown: UnitedHealthcare + Optum**

**UnitedHealthcare (Traditional insurance):** Operating profit for 2024 is expected to be $16.2 billion, making up half of the total. The Medicare Advantage business is under pressure due to increased visits and rising costs.

**Optum (Health services + technology):** Expected profit for 2024 is $18.2 billion, accounting for 53% of total profit. It acts like a “bulletproof vest” and is less affected by fluctuations in the insurance market.

**Comparison with Centene: Can’t afford to lose vs. UNH stable at half**

**Centene:** Heavy exposure to the ACA market, slashed its guidance from $7.25 to $1.75, leading to a sharp drop in stock price.

**UNH:** Only about 15% of revenue comes from Medicaid, with commercial insurance and Medicare making up the bulk. EPS decline is expected to be less drastic.

**EPS Forecast and “Masterful” Valuation**

**My rough EPS estimate:** About $18.5 for the full year 2025 (although there’s downside risk, it won’t drop below $10).

**Implied P/E ratio:** Stock price is about $280, implying a 15× PE, which is well below UNH’s historical average of 20–25×.

**Investment takeaway:** If the data doesn’t “explode,” $280 could be a good entry point—whether it returns to historical premiums depends on the earnings guidance.

**Additional Risks and Surprises**

**Legal investigation:** UNH is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice due to the “denial of coverage” issue, but a minor settlement is expected.

**Data breach costs:** The fallout from the Parker hacking incident is still ongoing, but the financial impact is controllable.

**PayPal surprise:** By the way, PayPal also has some exciting developments next week—new payment methods in China, India, and South America. As the user base grows, so does the revenue.

**Valuation: Floor and Ceiling**  
For companies that no longer deserve historical premium valuations, the difference between the ceiling and the floor can be quite large.

**Ceiling:** The ceiling is reached by comparing its 18x historical P/E ratio with the 2027 estimated value, arriving at a target of $505 per share.

**Floor:** UNH’s floor is traded based on its book value multiple. Currently, UNH’s booking rate is 2.7x, implying about 25% downside potential.

* * *

**Conclusion:**

**Short-term focus:** Earnings report details, EPS, guidance for major sectors, and changes in Medicare costs.

**Valuation recovery opportunity:** 15× P/E compared to historical 20×, which is attractive for value investors.

**Monitor policy and legal developments:** New policies or settlements could bring volatility.

In short, after UNH’s earnings report, expect increased volatility in UNH stock. Keep an eye on the post-market earnings call on Tuesday evening (Eastern Time).

### Related Stocks

- [UNH.US - Unitedhealth](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UNH.US.md)

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
