---
title: "I post a pre-mkt summary for Subscribers only every morning before 6am CT.  Here was today’s. ———Sub"
description: "I post a pre-mkt summary for Subscribers only every morning before 6am CT.  Here was today’s. ———Subscribers only.  Equities rose pre-market (SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.2%) in front of today’s Fed rate decisio"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000169290.md"
published_at: "2025-07-30T14:17:29.000Z"
author: "[Gary Black Tracker](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17077344)"
---

# I post a pre-mkt summary for Subscribers only every morning before 6am CT.  Here was today’s. ———Sub

I post a pre-mkt summary for Subscribers only every morning before 6am CT. Here was today’s.

———

Subscribers only. Equities rose pre-market (SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.2%) in front of today’s Fed rate decision, 2Q GDP, and earnings reports from $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US). 10yrTY 4.33% +0.8bp. #BTC $118.0K +0.5%. Brent crude $73/bbl +0.8%. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +0.6% to $176 pre-mkt. $Tesla(TSLA.US) +0.3% to $322 pre-mkt.

The Fed will almost certainly hold interest rates steady when they announce their rate decision today at 2pm ET. The only debate is whether there will be one or two dissents; the latter would be for the first time since 1993. We expect the Fed decision and Powell press conference afterward to hint at a potential rate cut in September, assuming inflation continues to ease and economic growth remains modest. Today’s 2Q GDP data is expected to show the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized pace. July ADP private payrolls are forecasted at +76K up from -33K in June. Tomorrow’s June PCE data is expected to show a +0.3% MoM change, both headline and core. Finally, Friday’s July non-farm payrolls is forecasted to fall to +102K from +147K in June. We assume the FOMC has access to all this information prior to today’s rate decision.

Trump’s landmark agreements with Japan and EU in the past week have set the stage for other deals to be announced by Friday’s Aug 1 tariff deadline. An extension of the US-China tariff truce is also in the works. The administration is taking a victory lap, claiming vindication for Trump’s bargaining style. While the scale of America’s tariff wall is becoming clearer, other details remain fuzzy, especially investment capital promised by counterparties, which on paper exceeds $1 trillion for the EU and Japan deals alone.

The S&P 500 trades at 22x forward earnings, implying an earnings yield of 4.4%. This is in line with the 10yr TY of 4.33%, vs a normal equity premium of 100-125bp over the past 50 years. Whether the market continues its record rally could depend on earnings from $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), and $Apple(AAPL.US) tonight and tomorrow.

We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) mainly due to its high valuation, but also due to what we view as excessive optimism about how quickly TSLA can roll out unsupervised robotaxi across the United States. At 160x 2025 Adj EPS, TSLA is priced at roughly 2x its historic forward P/E of 78x and 5x its 2025-2030 EPS growth rate. TSLA catalysts include removing the safety driver as TSLA expands its robotaxi service to more states. We also view favorably potential plans to launch a reduced price compact Model Y or a smaller pickup, the latter which was hinted at by VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy at a TSLA fan event. Our 6-12 month $Tesla(TSLA.US) PT remains $310.

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.