---
title: "$Apple(AAPL.US) Preview:It's all about the September guide, and the iPhone accounts for 48% of the w"
description: "$Apple(AAPL.US) Preview:It's all about the September guide, and the iPhone accounts for 48% of the weight.I'm expecting the guide to be inline to slightly better based on Street expectations calling f"
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000172654.md"
published_at: "2025-07-31T16:47:18.000Z"
author: "[Gene Munster](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/21804449)"
---

# $Apple(AAPL.US) Preview:It's all about the September guide, and the iPhone accounts for 48% of the w

$Apple(AAPL.US) Preview:

It's all about the September guide, and the iPhone accounts for 48% of the weight.

I'm expecting the guide to be inline to slightly better based on Street expectations calling for iPhone to be down 1% in September compared to up 2% in June.

The biggest reason analysts are modeling for a decline in iPhone in September is it’s up against a difficult comp. Last year in Sept 24' iPhone grew 5.5%, compared to down 0.9% in June 24'.

Two reasons why I think iPhone will be flat to up in September.

1\. Third party iPhone data from China suggests the region has stabilized. In March 25' Greater China was down 2.3%, an improvement from down 11.1% in Dec 24'. China is up against a -6.5% comp. China accounts for about 20% of iPhone sales (and 17% of overall sales).

2\. New form factor iPhone Air coming in September. Not as feature rich as the Pro line, but the aesthetics will win upgrades. Think of this phone to account for about 30% of total iPhones in FY26.

Source: Gene Munster

### Related Stocks

- [AAPL.US - Apple](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.