---
title: "It’s fairly clear from tracking data and anecdotal observations that $Tesla(TSLA.US) 3Q deliveries c"
description: "It’s fairly clear from tracking data and anecdotal observations that $Tesla(TSLA.US) 3Q deliveries could beat WS 3Q consensus delivery estimates of 431K by +5% or more, given the expiring U.S. $7,500 "
type: "topic"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/100000000223577.md"
published_at: "2025-09-09T09:14:45.000Z"
author: "[Gary Black Tracker](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17077344)"
---

# It’s fairly clear from tracking data and anecdotal observations that $Tesla(TSLA.US) 3Q deliveries c

It’s fairly clear from tracking data and anecdotal observations that $Tesla(TSLA.US) 3Q deliveries could beat WS 3Q consensus delivery estimates of 431K by +5% or more, given the expiring U.S. $7,500 up-front EV credit. We expect 3Q US deliveries to be a record, up 10-15% YoY.

The big debate is what happens in 4Q: Will the new more affordable TSLA EV set for launch in 4Q and priced at ~$35K be a new form factor that allows TSLA to expand TAM to a new category or be simply a lower-cost, lower-priced Model Y with smaller battery that causes a repeat of 2023-2024, when TSLA cut prices and costs but got essentially no incremental volume? With the focus on Robotaxi and Optimus it may not matter any more, but EV sales still generates 80% of TSLA profits and so matters to valuation.

We are still expecting FY’25 TSLA volumes to decline by -10% YoY to 1,610K, in line with WS consensus.

### Related Stocks

- [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md)
- [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md)

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
